2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Meanwhile this is the state of the MDR on the GFS 0Z

[Teban54]

0z ICON suddenly has 3 TCs in the MDR at the end of its run (180 hours), plus the SA system. It also continues the trend of every model being enthusiastic about the 8/30 wave as a TS right after exiting Africa, which is now almost within a week.

0z Euro continues to have the 8/30 wave emerge as a TS, and this time seems to have a TD inside Africa. 0z GFS also develops it quickly off the coast, though doesn't intensify further from there.

Maybe third time is the charm?

[Teban54]

Lol

[REDHurricane]

Lol
https://i.postimg.cc/15RNM23n/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-11.png

Imagine if zero hurricanes develop out of these waves within the next two weeks...

[skyline385]

Lol

I think MDR is to the Euro like the Caribbean is to the GFS. It has busted there so many times already this season...

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[Hammy]

GFS illustrates a big reason the waves have failed to develop so far--aside from the latitude problem, they're coming off far too broad thanks to monsoon trough interaction. Compare the current wave to the next one, how much tighter the latter is:

[SoupBone]

What's that feature in the central Gulf on 8/27 on the GFS?

[skyline385]

What's that feature in the central Gulf on 8/27 on the GFS?

Possibly a weak wave i am guessing, it was there on the CMC last night too


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[AutoPenalti]

Looks like GFS develops something immediately after coming off Africa and moves NW.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like GFS develops something immediately after coming off Africa and moves NW.

And over the CV as a Hurricane, this has happened once before. (Hurricane Fred in 2015)

[LarryWx]

Here's something new on the 12Z UKMET at hour 138 in the far eastern MDR: it is shown as 994 mb, which makes it highly questionable since it is ridiculously strong for being just off Africa. It is moving WNW at a pretty high latitude. That in combination with its supposed strength would mean high chance of a very early recurve if it is real:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.5N 16.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2022 144 18.4N 17.6W 994 44

[Cpv17]

What's that feature in the central Gulf on 8/27 on the GFS?

Look at what’s currently in the NW Caribbean. That’s probably what it’s showing.

[skyline385]

Looks like GFS develops something immediately after coming off Africa and moves NW.

ICON has it too but it also has two other systems near it fighting


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[AutoPenalti]

This looks very much OTS

[LarryWx]

Looks like GFS develops something immediately after coming off Africa and moves NW.

12Z UKMET, which I just posted, has something similar in location, timing, strength, and movement (WNW) fwiw.

[AutoPenalti]

Uhh... nevermind. Cutoff low just disappears. Very early Irma-ish track.

[aspen]

I think we should just ignore whatever the CMC is saying. It keeps trying to form a CAG in about a week or so, which shouldn’t be possible for late August/early September.

[Teban54]

Here's something new on the 12Z UKMET at hour 138 in the far eastern MDR: it is shown as 994 mb, which makes it highly questionable since it is ridiculously strong for being just off Africa. It is moving WNW at a pretty high latitude. That in combination with its supposed strength would mean high chance of a very early recurve if it is real:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.5N 16.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2022 144 18.4N 17.6W 994 44

This is the 8/30 wave that GFS, Euro and ICON have all been showing as a TD/TS immediately after coming off Africa, run after run. They disagree on intensity at splashdown and evolution in the MDR, of course.

If anything, now that the conservative UKMET is jumping on board, it gives even more credence that it may be real and not just a model cane like the two waves before it. The time frame is now within a week, too.

FWIW, Irma formed around a similar time frame, after every single wave before it struggled due to SAL.

[AutoPenalti]

Moving WNW into a weakness but trough is lifting away…

[skyline385]

We have seen plenty of systems like this one in the past few weeks but they disappear off in a few runs out. Let’s see if this one is any different but am not holding my breath…


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