Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 36-240 hours

[AutoPenalti]

Full 12Z EPS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/935fec6a06e3ccd2353efde2980725c5.jpg


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I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

https://i.postimg.cc/yx17gnSz/ecmwf.png

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8e4108c1bda8082a0d579e8b03cecdf6.jpg


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Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

[IcyTundra]

I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

https://i.postimg.cc/yx17gnSz/ecmwf.png

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8e4108c1bda8082a0d579e8b03cecdf6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

Not with that upper air pattern. High anchored over the SE US 240 hrs out so it doesn't mean much right now.

[WiscoWx02]

I was hardcore doubting this area at first but…idk something I remember hearing from Mark Suddeth and others, as well as the 6 years of experience I have tracking the tropics…when you have that much spin, it usually means something is going to come out of it. Harvey, Gert, Isaias and other have proved that.

[tolakram]

I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

https://i.postimg.cc/yx17gnSz/ecmwf.png

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8e4108c1bda8082a0d579e8b03cecdf6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

The model output is the same.

The stronger the storm the higher level the steering. Now remember this is way out in fantasy range and the only graph weather.us has above 500mb is 300mb so this might be too high up.



You can see an opening for a strong storm to push further north, which is why I think the direction is NW rather than straight west. This is fluid dynamics which is way way above my knowledge level, but is the way I understand how steering works. This might imply a northwest movement before being blocked further north. Things are not static and odds are it won't look anything like this by the time 240 hours gets here.

If you look here at the Layer Mean Wind: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time= There is a guide on storm strength and what levels to use.



The stronger the storm the higher up the steering currents in the atmosphere, but to some extent it's still a blend. I'm not sure to what extent or even if there's a simple explanation as to how to use simple layer analysis.

[skyline385]

I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

https://i.postimg.cc/yx17gnSz/ecmwf.png

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8e4108c1bda8082a0d579e8b03cecdf6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

The one on weathermodels in the full 15-day run, weathernerds shows only up to 10 days. Besides that same model and EPS does expect for it to turn in this run but with that ridge above us, anything can happen.


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[AutoPenalti]

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8e4108c1bda8082a0d579e8b03cecdf6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

The model output is the same.

The stronger the storm the higher level the steering. Now remember this is way out in fantasy range and the only graph weather.us has above 500mb is 300mb so this might be too high up.

https://i.imgur.com/NkfsnI0.png

You can see an opening for a strong storm to push further north, which is why I think the direction is NW rather than straight west. This is fluid dynamics which is way way above my knowledge level, but is the way I understand how steering works. This might imply a northwest movement before being blocked further north. Things are not static and odds are it won't look anything like this by the time 240 hours gets here.

If you look here at the Layer Mean Wind: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time= There is a guide on storm strength and what levels to use.

https://i.imgur.com/hv6xo71.png

The stronger the storm the higher up the steering currents in the atmosphere, but to some extent it's still a blend. I'm not sure to what extent or even if there's a simple explanation as to how to use simple layer analysis.

Yeah, I do remember that part about it being influenced by higher steering the stronger it was, but what I found interesting was that weathermodels has 300mb steering. I’m guessing if extrapolated further weathernerds would have the same?

[skyline385]

ICON 18Z moving ahead the development timeframe

[tolakram]

Not sure but the one on weathermodels implies this recurving away?

The model output is the same.

The stronger the storm the higher level the steering. Now remember this is way out in fantasy range and the only graph weather.us has above 500mb is 300mb so this might be too high up.

https://i.imgur.com/NkfsnI0.png

You can see an opening for a strong storm to push further north, which is why I think the direction is NW rather than straight west. This is fluid dynamics which is way way above my knowledge level, but is the way I understand how steering works. This might imply a northwest movement before being blocked further north. Things are not static and odds are it won't look anything like this by the time 240 hours gets here.

If you look here at the Layer Mean Wind: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time= There is a guide on storm strength and what levels to use.

https://i.imgur.com/hv6xo71.png

The stronger the storm the higher up the steering currents in the atmosphere, but to some extent it's still a blend. I'm not sure to what extent or even if there's a simple explanation as to how to use simple layer analysis.

Yeah, I do remember that part about it being influenced by higher steering the stronger it was, but what I found interesting was that weathermodels has 300mb steering. I’m guessing if extrapolated further weathernerds would have the same?

All model output is the same, they may be missing the charts but the Euro 12Z deterministic run is the same for every site. Weathernerds just decided not to plot the 300mb output.

[skyline385]

For those waiting for 18Z GFS

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1563285929816911874




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1563291066651930625

[Cpv17]

On day 10 of the 12z Euro it looks like it has it trying to plow straight into the ridge.

[Nimbus]

Check out the ridging the 12Z Euro has at 240 hours.
I'd rather see that setup further west like the GFS scenario(no offense to anybody living in Guayabas)

[cycloneye]

Here is the reason for the delay of the 18z GFS. Edit=Is running now.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting that the 18z gfs (So far at hour 147) is moving faster west, but quite a bit weaker on this system than 12z.

[LarryWx]

Here is the reason for the delay of the 18z GFS. Edit=Is running now.

https://i.imgur.com/1BWKcla.jpg

I guess the Happy Hour GFS has been drinking again thus causing it to run late.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET continues to develop this with genesis at hour 102 at 13.5 N, 45.0 W moving NW but with hardly any strengthening.

[BobHarlem]

Here is the reason for the delay of the 18z GFS. Edit=Is running now.

https://i.imgur.com/1BWKcla.jpg

I guess the Happy Hour GFS has been drinking again thus causing it to run late.

So far it's not developing it on this run all the way through just north of Puerto Rico with Faster forward motion, no real development. (although the Caribbean wave it develops in the gulf still)

[Hammy]

Happy Hour runs seem to be a preview of what won't happen, so if it's backing off development during them maybe that means we'll finally get something

[AutoPenalti]

Likely shear from the outflow of the GOM system.

[sma10]

Likely shear from the outflow of the GOM system.

I'm thinking that the system in the Gulf (whether real or imagined) has such a huge circulation that the other system would have very little chance