NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:I don't understand why we continue to be so reactionary on here with regards to this wave; this interaction between the two lobes was well-forecasted in advance by most modeling solutions and illustrates that we are still 2-3 days away from TCG, again in line with modeling. We're going to need to wait until after these two competing vortmaxes within the larger monsoon trough determine a victor or find a way to combine their vorticity before we can expect there to be a TC. See Isaias's genesis from 2020 for a similar example.
Even now, new convection is firing over the well-defined mid-level spin which is very close to closing off at the surface. I don't see a reason to worry unless it stays anemic through dmax (which looks unlikely). I'd also be very surprised (given the near-universal model consensus for TCG within the next week) for this to not develop at this point.
Just another situation where you have to monitor what's happening with short-term satellite trends and modeling solutions, as is often the case. Going to be an interesting few days with this wave regardless.
Agreed, don't quite understand the reactions either. Euro has been extremely consistent in not developing this system until it has time to wobble around each other and loop-di-loop.
You'd think the fact that since it is actually following the Euro design that people would be MORE confident in its solution?
