Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[AtlanticWind]

0Z ECMWF starts off very strong but then suddenly seems to weaken around 60 hours into a broad circulation

Looks about the same at 72 hours to me

[skyline385]

Isaias flashbacks lol

0Z ECMWF starts off very strong but then suddenly seems to weaken around 60 hours into a broad circulation

Looks about the same at 72 hours to me

Compare the vorticity plots, you will see the difference. This run is very broad and elongated almost like the trough never consolidated fully.

[AtlanticWind]

Models backing off?

It really is an odd season to this point.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro strengthens it at 144 hours , GFS was weakening it about this point I believe

[skyline385]

Models backing off?

It really is an odd season to this point.

Don’t think so, we have to wait for the trough to sort itself out before the models have an accurate idea.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro still showing what appears to be a hurricane approaching florida

[skyline385]

0Z ECMWF, seems to slow down in the last frame getting blocked by the ridge building over Florida

[AJC3]

Euro still showing what appears to be a hurricane approaching florida

The 00Z op run stalls it out just east of Eleuthera at day 10. Looks like the ridge to its north erodes east of 75W, but remains strong from 75W westward into the mid Atlantic and SE CONUS. Of course, too early to dwell on specifics, but the GFS is definitely trending toward the ECM, albeit about a full day slower as far as the islands are concerned. Looks like there's a decent chance for a wave/disturbance/TC to be moving close to the northern LA in about 6-7 days. As always, it'll sort itself out over the next week whether or not this becomes a significant concern/threat for the U.S.

edit: taking a second look at both runs, eyeballing the position of the surface-h850MB centers out at day 10, they're only about...maybe 80 miles apart, so the GFS does catch up from days 7-10. Go figure...

[skyline385]

0Z EPS has quite a few members sneak into the Gulf as the ridge builds up over the east coast while others recurve near the Bahamas

[MHC Tracking]

Seems 00z GFS TUTTs the wave into oblivion before it can get going. Later period of organization rendered impossible by shear from the GOMEX fantasy's outflow.

[Keldeo1997]

[CFLHurricane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1012996909830520852/IMG_2933.png

I’ll believe when I see it. The models have been too much of a tease this year.

[Keldeo1997]

[aspen]

06z GFS, 00z Euro, 00z CMC, and 06z ICON all develop this and make it at least a moderate TS. The CMC is the only model that doesn’t bring it to Category 2 or higher intensity, but the fact that it actually shows development is something.

06z GFS and 00z Euro are a little slower than yesterday’s runs and don’t have TS Danielle until after August 31st, while the ICON is faster and makes it a TS before the end of the month.

[gatorcane]

Overnight runs are even more concerning for the northern Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida. The GFS has shifted way west (with development) as I thought it would while the Euro stalls it just east of the Bahamas by day 10 with plenty of model shifting to come. Long way to go here but not buying the GFS recurve still.

Yikes 00Z ECMWF

[wxman57]

I think this feature has a much better chance of developing than anything in the western Caribbean. Note that the NHC is jumping its "X" westward to be more in line with the lead disturbance?

[tropicwatch]

I think this feature has a much better chance of developing than anything in the western Caribbean. Note that the NHC is jumping its "X" westward to be more in line with the lead disturbance?

Saw that this morning. Maybe the name of this thread should be adjusted.

[cycloneye]

I think this feature has a much better chance of developing than anything in the western Caribbean. Note that the NHC is jumping its "X" westward to be more in line with the lead disturbance?

Saw that this morning. Maybe the name of this thread should be adjusted.

Edited the title.

[aspen]

I think this feature has a much better chance of developing than anything in the western Caribbean. Note that the NHC is jumping its "X" westward to be more in line with the lead disturbance?

The “X” is centered to the east of the main convective blob because that is offset from the center of vorticity. At the 850mb and 700mb levels, it’s at roughly 36-37W, although there’s an offset to 39-40W at the 500mb and 200mb levels. However, the disturbance is now one singular area of vorticity instead of being two connected but distinguishable areas, an important step towards this finally developing. It’s also a little more convectively active than the GFS has forecast for this time. Now all that convection just needs to center itself over the vort center and consolidate.

[tolakram]

I feel like this will be an invest very soon.

UKMET 6Z (only goes to 60 hours)

60 hours