ATL: EARL - Models

[NDG]

Here's the 12Z UKMET starting at 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/3StTHGY.gif

The 18Z only goes to 60 hours so here's the last frame.

https://i.imgur.com/PDis16j.png

The same 12z UKMET shows 91L getting sheared to pieces by an ULL in the northern Bahamas when 91L reaches Cuba.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. This shift has 3 members over PR.

[NDG]

Even if 91L tracks further west, both the UKMET and Euro show a not so pretty UL environment west of the Lesser Antilles over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles.

[wxman57]

I still don't see this system as a Caribbean islands threat. Also, GFS develops everything into a major hurricane these days. It also indicates that the system will be running into a strong TUTT in 5-6 days but still strengthens it. GFS is back on crack.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: ceases tracking as a tropical entity almost immediately. I'm still curious what the late run surface maps will show as the 12Z went to the north coast of Cuba though as just a weak low.

0Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 51.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2022 0 15.6N 51.8W 1008 22
1200UTC 01.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

[Kingarabian]

Yeah UKMET dropped it completely. Weird.

00Z CMC will recurve it but much slower ejection.



Euro so far has been a compromise between the UKMET and the CMC. So wouldn't be surprised to see it stall 91L over the Bahamas as a weak TC.

[LarryWx]

Yeah UKMET dropped it completely. Weird.

00Z CMC will recurve it but much slower ejection.

https://i.imgur.com/oENGEHg.gif

Euro so far has been a compromise between the UKMET and the CMC. So wouldn't be surprised to see it stall 91L over the Bahamas as a weak TC.

But the 0Z UKMET still has a weak low that goes quite far west and south fwiw.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF gets to the 980s by 9/3, while HMON gets to the 980s by 9/4. Still some differences between the two, but at least there's a little more short-term agreement. HWRF will likely end up much stronger than HMON again though

[Kingarabian]

Another SW shift on the new 00z Euro. It basically grazes PR now.

[Hammy]

Euro/UKMET trending away from development and the CMC constantly pushing development back to 150+ hours when it starts getting close tells me this isn't going to develop. GFS has no credibility after the Gulf phantom that it held onto for so long

[LarryWx]

Another SW shift on the new 00z Euro. It basically grazes PR now.

0Z EPS actually has 10% of its members threaten FL.

[BobHarlem]

some of the models weakening it and moving it into the Southern Bahamas (Euro and UKmet) bugs me, as the question then begs, ok, what after that? There's still energy there, does it really go poof, does it get ripped to shreads by an ULL, or does it have a chance to regenerate near the Bahamas or west of there? The fact the Euro is basically mimicking the earlier UKMet runs now after showing recurve for a bit is interesting to me. (UKMet map still shows the energy associated with 91L moving into the Southern Bahamas, even if it's not tracking it directly yet) It feels like the 91L threads will be really long, but just because this area is going to hang around forever.

[MHC Tracking]

Euro/UKMET trending away from development and the CMC constantly pushing development back to 150+ hours when it starts getting close tells me this isn't going to develop. GFS has no credibility after the Gulf phantom that it held onto for so long

False equivalency. A disturbance where the precursor low is evident and intermittently firing deep convection is not the same as one where the precursor is only depicted by one model, and relies on a spurious genesis pathway to get going.

[NDG]

The Euro is trending for the immediate east coast ridging to stay in place through the next 10 days but the same Euro is showing 91L to get hit by very dry westerly shear as it tracks just north of PR and DR.

[Hammy]

Euro/UKMET trending away from development and the CMC constantly pushing development back to 150+ hours when it starts getting close tells me this isn't going to develop. GFS has no credibility after the Gulf phantom that it held onto for so long

False equivalency. A disturbance where the precursor low is evident and intermittently firing deep convection is not the same as one where the precursor is only depicted by one model, and relies on a spurious genesis pathway to get going.

The GFS has a very long history of overblowing hurricane intensities especially beyond 120 hours--whether the disturbance is there or not. Reliable guidance is trending away from development, even the NAM 32km is not doing much with it.

[aspen]

It would be a massive bust from over half the models — GFS, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON — if this never develops. Just look at it today, it’s already close to TD status.

I think the GFS’s solution of a recurving major is possible, probably something similar to Humberto ‘19 except around 60W. 91L won’t have to deal with upwelling once it starts accelerating to the NE, it might run over an anomalous patch of 29.5-30C SSTs east of Bermuda, and there’s always the probability of it getting some baroclinic enhancement as it recurves.

[MHC Tracking]

It would be a massive bust from over half the models — GFS, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON — if this never develops. Just look at it today, it’s already close to TD status.

I think the GFS’s solution of a recurving major is possible, probably something similar to Humberto ‘19 except around 60W. 91L won’t have to deal with upwelling once it starts accelerating to the NE, it might run over an anomalous patch of 29.5-30C SSTs east of Bermuda, and there’s always the probability of it getting some baroclinic enhancement as it recurves.

Full agree with this statement - I just don't see such a massive model bust occurring.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of all models, including ensembles. Consensus (TVCN) is that dark purple line near the upper edge of the plot. Green lines are 06Z GFS ensembles, Orange lines are the 00Z GFS ensembles. Canadian ensembles in yellow, European in purple. Not many EC ensemble plots have it strong enough to track. Fairly good agreement on no U.S. threat and likely no Bahamas impacts. East of Bermuda, too.

[tolakram]

Euro trend

[BobHarlem]

6Z Euro a bit weaker, further west, similar to 0z. (if you compare to yesterday and Tuesdays run the shift left and weaker trend is more noticable) I.e. 12z tuesday had it stronger at 24N, yesterday's 12z was at 22.2N. and this mornings 6z has it at the same time (0z Sep 5th) at 20.3N