ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Teban54]

I thought the season was over?

[toad strangler]

It’s probably going to curve over the Bahamas or just east of it and miss Florida my opinion.The TUTT will most likely cause the weakness and like I said earlier in the year that it’s rare to get hit from the east.

Well, no it actually isn't as I posted in rebuttal with actual dates of strikes from the East later than today's date. I guessed you missed that? I mean strikes in any one area are tough to begin with no matter the date. Anyway, I think it's prudent to just watch this until we see what happens with any GA interaction. Most likely outcome would be a re-curve if this system stacks up somewhat.

Edit .... here is the list. Nine strikes from the E later than today's date. Once every 19-20 years on average since 1850. But, we know the tropics don't care about silly averages.

9/15/1945 Cat 4 Miami Dade
9/16/1947 Cat 4 Broward
9/17/1928 Cat 4 Palm Beach
9/18/1926 Cat 4 Miami/Dade
9/26/2005 Cat 3 Martin
10/6/1941 Cat 2 Miami/Dade
10/17/1904 Cat 1 Miami/Dade
10/18/1950 Cat 4 Miami/Dade
11/4/1935 Cat 2 Miami/Dade

[Nimbus]

There is a "relative" closed circulation but WXman57 is right we should not ignore the clinging effect a trough axis has on a developing low.

So maybe 00Z HWRF overdid on intensity, but we don't want this to miss a TUTT because the track is too far south..

[CronkPSU]

weird season, the last two decades I would have been watching this like a hawk here in Central Florida but it seems to be either going south of us as a weaker storm or north of us if gets stronger, we are usually in the crosshairs of a storm like this, at least in the first few models but not so much this time....hoping for a strong fish just to get those ACE numbers up, US economy really doesn't need a strong storm hitting anywhere right now and causing more damage and delays

[sma10]

it seems to be overachieving, Are you sure a stronger storm makes it into the carib?

There is a ridge building up above it so a stronger storm may still end up in the Caribbean

https://i.imgur.com/i0g3dzV.png

On the GFS there is a ridge, the euro says bye-bye to the ridge and the system heads towards the NNE. Very interesting setup with a fork in the road around the shredder. Let the arguments, conjecture and in some cases, pure fantasy proceed.

Real tricky one here. Clearly, the models suggest that anything that develops to any significant strength prior to the Caribbean or in the vicinity of PR or DR will pull northward and away. However ... the models are also of the opinion that a weak, sloppy mess could get drawn pretty far westward into a completely different environment. Definite "fork in the road" scenario shaping up

[Iceresistance]

70%

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad and elongated
area of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles have persisted overnight and are showing signs of
organization. Although upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical
depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward
over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday
night. Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward
Islands Friday through Saturday. Interests in the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[SFLcane]

Should have no problem recurving out to sea or again near bermuda.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1570049476106276869

[boca]

Should have no problem recurving out to sea or again near bermuda.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1570049476106276869?s=20&t=HPOcAdVXGe5HWnrzsQdkrw

Earl part 2

[SFLcane]

Should have no problem recurving out to sea or again near bermuda.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1570049476106276869?s=20&t=HPOcAdVXGe5HWnrzsQdkrw

Earl part 2

Yup!

[AutoPenalti]

Should have no problem recurving out to sea or again near bermuda.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1570049476106276869?s=20&t=HPOcAdVXGe5HWnrzsQdkrw

Earl part 2

Yup!

Meh, extreme doubt. This is super progressive especially with it being Typhoon-influenced.

[SFLcane]

Earl part 2

Yup!

Meh, extreme doubt. This is super progressive especially with it being Typhoon-influenced.

[CourierPR]

Wasn't high pressure expected to build in and steer this west? What happened?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

FNMOC has 07L. We'll see if NHC pulls the trigger.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

FNMOC has 07L. We'll see if NHC pulls the trigger.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1019618803165954078/Screenshot_4156.png

They do:
 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1570060440088219648

[toad strangler]

Wasn't high pressure expected to build in and steer this west? What happened?

the 500mb set up being talked about is 6 days out. It's not a good idea to that that verbatim as we have seen countless times before. We shall see.

[AutoPenalti]

Yup!

Meh, extreme doubt. This is super progressive especially with it being Typhoon-influenced.

https://i.postimg.cc/bYx2ryNr/eps.png

Almost a week out, we shall see.

[SFLcane]

70-70 straight to upgrade this is a first for me.

[InfernoFlameCat]

2 days ago this wasn't even listed.

[Sciencerocks]