ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

We are under a tropical storm watch

[cycloneye]

We are under a tropical storm watch

Hi Barbara. Yes. Stay safe.

[skyline385]

Cold tops expanding in last few frames although still sheared to the west

[CrazyC83]

It's likely all westbound to the Leewards as that ridge is very strong. The way I see it is that if the storm is strong, it will hit that weakness and move northwest at the end of the run, but a weaker storm would just continue along - or south of - the Greater Antilles.

[msbee]

We are under a tropical storm watch

Hi Barbara. Yes. Stay safe.

Thanks Luis. We will be okay although I am concerned about flooding if we get a lot of rain.
Be careful in PR too.

[Craters]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dQ2nH8HL/goes16-vis-swir-07-L-202209142105.gif [/url]

Latest position is @16.9N/51.4W, appears TD7’s LLC is racing W exposed and convection is stuck… Shear must be picking up…

reminds me of earl. I hate shear sometimes

So did Hurricane Nicholas. We on the TX Gulf Coast, on the other hand, really, REALLY liked it -- still do, actually!

[MGC]

Impressive convective burst this evening. Will be interesting to see what recon finds tomorrow. Appears to be over preforming today. Islands need to start preps.....MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to think the center relocation/pulling under the convection may not be so far fetched. It’s hard to make out much detail on low level clouds with night time visible/shortwave, but to me the low level circulation envelope looks pretty stretched east to west.

[Hammy]

Low cloud motion, after going back and fourth on the satellite for several minutes. Center looks pretty close to the convection but slightly elongated, but the motion within the circle is hard to detect so the center could also be on the east end of it.

[LemieT]

https://i.imgur.com/SMZvgZk.png

Low cloud motion, after going back and fourth on the satellite for several minutes. Center looks pretty close to the convection but slightly elongated, but the motion within the circle is hard to detect so the center could also be on the east end of it.

This is almost exactly the same thing I am seeing. Looks like it is closer to 16 than 17 north. Could see some southward track changes in the morning if this persists overnight.

[Beef Stew]

Worth noting that if it does in fact occur, a center relocation down-shear could have fairly significant consequences regarding Fiona’s track down the road. Until we have clarity here, we’re really just taking shots in the dark regarding path past the Lesser Antilles, and given the overall accuracy of the models this season… let’s just say I’m not sold on anything yet. While climo suggests that this will not likely be a CONUS threat, it’s certainly too early to rule it out. Regardless, Fiona appears to be overachieving tonight- we might just end up with a significant storm in the deep tropics this season after all…

[Owasso]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Shifted to the south slightly.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

https://i.postimg.cc/NM7kx96z/D6-AA0097-AA30-46-C9-A70-F-2-E74-AF42-C203.png

Shifted to the south slightly.

Based on the cone it does not seem out of the question that Fiona could pass in between Puerto Rico and DR. In that case the islands could still get a lot of rain/wind, but Fiona's core might remain undisturbed and could thus intensify more than most models show right now.

[Jr0d]

Going to be interesting to see what the visible shows. Im thinking the LLC is fully exposed east of the convention. Sometimes with weak sheared TS's, a new LLC will form under the convection. The visible will help tremendously to see whats going on.

If you look at BAND 7, it sure looks a swirl east of the convection.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL072022

[REDHurricane]

Looks like Fiona is stacking up pretty well up until after the 700mb level, with the 500mb vorticity currently displaced probably around a degree or so to the east due to moderate wind shear present. An upper level anticyclone seems to be allowing for some development right now, though, and both the GFS and Euro are predicting that both shear and anticyclone will track with Fiona for the next 2-3 days or so. After that it appears that the moderate shear will persist and the anticyclone will move down towards the SW Caribbean -- GFS shows Fiona strengthening quickly and splitting off to the north, whereas the Euro shows it staying weaker, moving slowly into Hispaniola around day 4-5, and then kind of stalling for a while as the high pressure to the north is cut into by a trough coming off of New England and thus preventing Fiona from getting pushed further to the west. Right now I'm more inclined to trust the Euro run since conditions will likely remain only semi-favorable for intensification for the next week, and I don't see Fiona becoming a legit high Cat 1-low cat 2 by the end of day 5 like the GFS is forecasting. CMC also predicts a similar track to the Euro if we want to use that as a tiebreaker. But like others have said, this might be one of those storms where we + the models won't have any idea what's going to happen until it actually happens, so essentially nothing is out of the realm of possibility at this point.

925mb vort


850mb vort


700mb vort


500mb vort


200mb vort


GFS 00z out to 7 days


ECMWF 00z out to 7 days

[Hammy]

Kind of getting Hortense 1996 vibes given the location, track, and massive amount of shear that had to deal with about this point.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think even Shrek believed in a development as fast as this

I can just sniff the "All Star" memes coming if Fiona defies expectations and blows up into a major hurricane

More like "Did Y'all think that I was going to be weak? Think again!"

[Nimbus]

Convection was sheared south overnight and the low level center was probably almost exposed but getting another updraft burst at sunrise. Shear may have shifted around so its from the NNE now and by the time recon gets there in about 7 hours it may be helping ventilate.

[Blown Away]

Chugging W, LLC partially exposed but still dragging deep convection on the E side.