ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

60 kt/992mb looks like a good intensity estimate based on these two passes. It won’t be long before Fiona is a hurricane.

The path of the center from the two NOAA2 fixes suggests Fiona might avoid a direct landfall in Puerto Rico, but it’s going to be a very close call.

[skyline385]

Looks like some dry air got in as the new CBs near the center went up, can be seen on satellite too. Probably a minor hiccup at this point




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[kevin]

Both planes just measured higher winds, 64 kt FL winds with 59 kt SFMR. Could be enough to support 60 kt.

Also, based on undersampling which is roughly 10% for this type of storm (see table below, from this paper = https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/147/1/mwr-d-18-0296.1.xml), you could even argue 65 kt. Since this might be the last recon before the PR I would also understand it if they'll upgrade it to a minimal cat 1. Even though 60 kt sounds like the best estimate right now imo.

[Iceresistance]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

[kevin]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

[tolakram]

live visible floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[skyline385]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

Just decided to skip 3 categories


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[tolakram]

saved loop

[Iceresistance]

That eastern band is sucking in all the moisture and is limiting Fiona from being stronger.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/77434269.gif

[Iceresistance]

Just shy of Hurricane Status now.

...FIONA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

8:00 AM AST Sun Sep 18
Location: 17.2°N 66.1°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[NotSparta]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

Ah, don't forget to blend with flight level wind. It's actually only 100kt

[Iceresistance]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

Ah, don't forget to blend with flight level wind. It's actually only 100kt

Happy Birthday.

[NDG]

During my 7 hrs of sleep it didn't move that fast, calculating the distance between the last mission's VDM and this morning's it moved only 40 miles in 6 hrs, at 6.7/mph, interesting that the biggest pressure drop was during the late evening, it barely dropped in the last 6 hrs.

[Iceresistance]

That eastern band is sucking in all the moisture and is limiting Fiona from being stronger.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/77434269.gif

I've just noticed that there is a rapidly rotating hot tower that will eventually build the eyewall of Fiona.

[skyline385]

Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.

Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

170 kts SFMR (flagged) this time

[NDG]

I think downsloping dry winds in western PR into the circulation of Fiona is the reason why the western side looks so dry this morning and is disrupting the "eyewall" from time to time, I am sure it will change later in the day.

[skyline385]

Looks like winds are ramping up inland

 https://twitter.com/eyedoc07_/status/1571474753486987264

[tolakram]

122700 1710N 06619W 6969 03050 9901 +120 +090 086021 026 031 001 00
122730 1709N 06618W 6961 03060 9907 +115 +099 098011 018 024 000 00
122800 1707N 06618W 6965 03056 9915 +108 //// 104006 009 019 000 01
122830 1705N 06617W 6963 03059 9909 +113 //// 226005 009 021 000 01
122900 1704N 06616W 6962 03060 9903 +119 +107 258022 023 020 000 00
122930 1704N 06614W 6975 03049 9901 +123 +112 240013 023 018 000 00

[kevin]

66 kt FL winds and 61 kt SFMR, she's still intensifying.

[NDG]

That's a pretty strong NW quadrant as that convection is rotating around, some of the SFMR winds might have been rain contaminated, pressure seems to be holding steady, maybe a mb drop.