ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
60 kt/992mb looks like a good intensity estimate based on these two passes. It won’t be long before Fiona is a hurricane.
The path of the center from the two NOAA2 fixes suggests Fiona might avoid a direct landfall in Puerto Rico, but it’s going to be a very close call.
The path of the center from the two NOAA2 fixes suggests Fiona might avoid a direct landfall in Puerto Rico, but it’s going to be a very close call.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- skyline385
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like some dry air got in as the new CBs near the center went up, can be seen on satellite too. Probably a minor hiccup at this point

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Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Both planes just measured higher winds, 64 kt FL winds with 59 kt SFMR. Could be enough to support 60 kt.
Also, based on undersampling which is roughly 10% for this type of storm (see table below, from this paper = https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/147/1/mwr-d-18-0296.1.xml), you could even argue 65 kt. Since this might be the last recon before the PR I would also understand it if they'll upgrade it to a minimal cat 1. Even though 60 kt sounds like the best estimate right now imo.

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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands. 

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.
Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
live visible floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.
Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes
Just decided to skip 3 categories

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
saved loop


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That eastern band is sucking in all the moisture and is limiting Fiona from being stronger.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/77434269.gif

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/77434269.gif
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just shy of Hurricane Status now.
...FIONA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
8:00 AM AST Sun Sep 18
Location: 17.2°N 66.1°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Location: 17.2°N 66.1°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.
Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes
Ah, don't forget to blend with flight level wind. It's actually only 100kt

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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NotSparta wrote:kevin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.
Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes
Ah, don't forget to blend with flight level wind. It's actually only 100kt
Happy Birthday.

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
During my 7 hrs of sleep it didn't move that fast, calculating the distance between the last mission's VDM and this morning's it moved only 40 miles in 6 hrs, at 6.7/mph, interesting that the biggest pressure drop was during the late evening, it barely dropped in the last 6 hrs.


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:That eastern band is sucking in all the moisture and is limiting Fiona from being stronger.
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/77434269.gif
I've just noticed that there is a rapidly rotating hot tower that will eventually build the eyewall of Fiona.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ignore the 130 knot SMFR on NOAA2, it flew over the Virgin Islands.
Unflagged 130 kt, RI record broken, 70 kt intensification within 10 minutes
170 kts SFMR (flagged) this time

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think downsloping dry winds in western PR into the circulation of Fiona is the reason why the western side looks so dry this morning and is disrupting the "eyewall" from time to time, I am sure it will change later in the day.


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

122700 1710N 06619W 6969 03050 9901 +120 +090 086021 026 031 001 00
122730 1709N 06618W 6961 03060 9907 +115 +099 098011 018 024 000 00
122800 1707N 06618W 6965 03056 9915 +108 //// 104006 009 019 000 01
122830 1705N 06617W 6963 03059 9909 +113 //// 226005 009 021 000 01
122900 1704N 06616W 6962 03060 9903 +119 +107 258022 023 020 000 00
122930 1704N 06614W 6975 03049 9901 +123 +112 240013 023 018 000 00
122730 1709N 06618W 6961 03060 9907 +115 +099 098011 018 024 000 00
122800 1707N 06618W 6965 03056 9915 +108 //// 104006 009 019 000 01
122830 1705N 06617W 6963 03059 9909 +113 //// 226005 009 021 000 01
122900 1704N 06616W 6962 03060 9903 +119 +107 258022 023 020 000 00
122930 1704N 06614W 6975 03049 9901 +123 +112 240013 023 018 000 00
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
66 kt FL winds and 61 kt SFMR, she's still intensifying.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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