ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

07L FIONA 220920 0000 20.3N 70.1W ATL 95 974

Nice to see they correctly adjusted BT up to 95 kt/110 mph. I understand why they were hesitant to go to 110 at 0z, but it became obvious shortly after.

[cheezyWXguy]

New eye dropsonde shows 970mb with 17kt, should be good for 968mb. Clearly still strengthening.

[ElectricStorm]

New eye dropsonde shows 970mb with 17kt, should be good for 968mb. Clearly still strengthening.

I don't think that drop made it to the surface, it says 973 at 0m in the other table. Either way it's still a bit lower than the last pass.

[skyline385]

New eye dropsonde shows 970mb with 17kt, should be good for 968mb. Clearly still strengthening.

The fix was 973mb, check the "Mandatory Level Data" table

[cheezyWXguy]

^good catches, I jumped the gun

[wx98]

Both of the planes just confirmed the 95 kt intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is one intense tower on the NW eyewall

[wx98]

Looks like both recons are going home. Wish one could've gotten one more NE eyewall pass.

EDIT: The AF plane is going back in. NOAA is going home.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona has shifted near due west. I do not think that was part of the track forecasted.

[FrontRunner]

Looks like both recons are going home. Wish one could've gotten one more NE eyewall pass.

I'm not too familiar with the recon scheduling, but anyone know why they'd have two in there at the same time rather than trying to stagger them in order to minimize the gaps in coverage?

[wx98]

Fiona has shifted near due west. I do not think that was part of the track forecasted.

Just a wobble. Those really can't be forecast along a smoothed 5-day track. Well within the cone.

[wx98]

Looks like both recons are going home. Wish one could've gotten one more NE eyewall pass.

I'm not too familiar with the recon scheduling, but anyone know why they'd have two in there at the same time rather than trying to stagger them in order to minimize the gaps in coverage?

They seem to do that frequently. I haven't ever known why myself.

EDIT: The AF plane is going back in. NOAA is going home.

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

A Jet Blue flight apparently flew above Fiona's eye today

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1572007777060458499




 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1572015560707244032

[SconnieCane]

Fiona has shifted near due west. I do not think that was part of the track forecasted.

Just a wobble. Those really can't be forecast along a smoothed 5-day track. Well within the cone.

Some model forecasts (and NHC's from as little as 36 hours ago) had this barely reaching 70.5W before movement east of due north. It's nearly there now and as of latest advisory forecast to push as far west as 71.3 in 36 hours. Relatively insignificant to the overall reasoning and well within the margin of error, yes, but it matters as to who gets hit in this case the Turks and Caicos might end up in the eyewall.

[galaxy401]

Three deaths have been reported from Fiona today: Two from Puerto Rico and one from the DR.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like both recons are going home. Wish one could've gotten one more NE eyewall pass.

EDIT: The AF plane is going back in. NOAA is going home.

AF going through eye now.

[Hammy]

Ironic the winds were raised to 95kt when the last pass shows it's down again to 85.

[wx98]

Ironic the winds were raised to 95kt when the last pass shows it's down again to 85.

I was surprised by that pass. Maybe a temporary levelling off?

[NotoSans]

Ironic the winds were raised to 95kt when the last pass shows it's down again to 85.

The working best track is supposed to smooth out very short-term (less than 6 hours) fluctuation in winds, and there is a possibility that the maximum winds are not sampled in either one of the pass.