
ATL: IAN - Models
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Here's Charley to jog some memories... Pretty much exactly what 12Z EURO shows, except Hermine(?) would be larger (not necessarily stronger)


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Classic GFS vs Euro scenario, although usually GFS has the right bias and Euro the left bias.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?
From the discussion board
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm
That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm
That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.
This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:Here's Charley to jog some memories... Pretty much exactly what 12Z EURO shows, except Hermine(?) would be larger (not necessarily stronger)
https://i.imgur.com/eHQXPay.png
If there was any saving grace with Charley it was his small size. Most of the modeling for 98L show a much larger system. We chall see.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
MississippiWx wrote:Ivanhater wrote:The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.
This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.
Yep. It actually hooks back North West deep into Georgia. There is no strong trough to sweep it out to sea.
This is much further West than the 00Z which had it along the Outer Banks.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Trough is already moving out and high pressure building over it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:
Trough is already moving out and high pressure building over it
yep, this has been shown by the GFS for days. But 500 mb can't be trusted outside of 72 hours let alone 192.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
caneseddy wrote:SFLcane wrote:Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?
From the discussion boardRe: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm
That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.![]()
Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.
Might have to adjust that a bit south.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:This 12Z Track is sooooo similar to 2004 Charley. Almost exact copy so far.
Since no two hurricanes (or snowflakes) are exactly alike, I would bet against that.
At this point I would bet my nickel with SFLcane.
Last edited by canebeard on Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
MississippiWx wrote:Ivanhater wrote:The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.
This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.
In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
cheezyWXguy wrote:MississippiWx wrote:Ivanhater wrote:The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.
This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.
In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.
wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
When will we know more about how those storms in the WPAC impact the trough intensity?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
toad strangler wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:MississippiWx wrote:
This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.
In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.
wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.
jet stream=jet core
Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
jlauderdal wrote:toad strangler wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.
wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.
jet stream=jet core
Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point
ahh the ol jet stream. Well that is usually way up there in the atmosphere cake, Higher than 500mb if I'm not mistaken. so I'd assume that would effect the most stacked of storms.
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