ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Here's Charley to jog some memories... Pretty much exactly what 12Z EURO shows, except Hermine(?) would be larger (not necessarily stronger)

[Stormcenter]

Well of course the EURO would be way east.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?

[Kazmit]

Classic GFS vs Euro scenario, although usually GFS has the right bias and Euro the left bias.

[caneseddy]

Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?

From the discussion board

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

[MississippiWx]

The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.

This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.

[toad strangler]

Here's Charley to jog some memories... Pretty much exactly what 12Z EURO shows, except Hermine(?) would be larger (not necessarily stronger)

https://i.imgur.com/eHQXPay.png

If there was any saving grace with Charley it was his small size. Most of the modeling for 98L show a much larger system. We chall see.

[Ivanhater]

The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.

This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.

Yep. It actually hooks back North West deep into Georgia. There is no strong trough to sweep it out to sea.

This is much further West than the 00Z which had it along the Outer Banks.



Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[chris_fit]

12Z JMA more similar to EURO than GFS/CMC

[Ivanhater]

12Z JMA more similar to EURO than GFS/CMC

https://i.imgur.com/J9M0Btc.gif

Trough is already moving out and high pressure building over it

[toad strangler]

12Z JMA more similar to EURO than GFS/CMC

https://i.imgur.com/J9M0Btc.gif

Trough is already moving out and high pressure building over it

yep, this has been shown by the GFS for days. But 500 mb can't be trusted outside of 72 hours let alone 192.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?

From the discussion board

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

Might have to adjust that a bit south.

[canebeard]

This 12Z Track is sooooo similar to 2004 Charley. Almost exact copy so far.

Since no two hurricanes (or snowflakes) are exactly alike, I would bet against that.

At this point I would bet my nickel with SFLcane.

[cheezyWXguy]

The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.

This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.

In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.

[toad strangler]

The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.

This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.

In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.

wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.

[FLpanhandle91]

When will we know more about how those storms in the WPAC impact the trough intensity?

[jlauderdal]

This goes to show how important the eventual location of development of any center is going to be important to its eventual track. The ECMWF is the farthest north and east in the Caribbean with it. Thus, it feels the weakness just enough to be scooped up and brought into Florida. The door northeastward closes on the ECMWF just as it's making landfall.

In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.

wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.

jet stream=jet core

Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point

[Spacecoast]

18z Track Guidance- TVCN now in the Yucatan Channel.

[toad strangler]

In this case it seems to come down more to the strength and shape of the trough, and also the handling of storm motion in response when it approaches the gulf. The trough could change any which way from run to run, but given the setup currently depicted on each model, the euro’s handling of storm motion is more plausible. I won’t say differences in initial formation and trek through the Caribbean mean nothing, as I think they play some role, but the factors I mention above seem to have more impact.

wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.

jet stream=jet core

Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point

ahh the ol jet stream. Well that is usually way up there in the atmosphere cake, Higher than 500mb if I'm not mistaken. so I'd assume that would effect the most stacked of storms.

[chris_fit]

Anyone got the 12z EPS?