ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

Bizarre to see the Ukmet & Euro the east outliers and GFS/Suite west outlier... Doesn't happen very often...

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS...

[Ivanhater]

Big shift West on the 18Z.

TVCN big shift West to the Yucatan Channel

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

wxman57 keeps mentioning west to east jet core in the western GOM that has him not buying the GFS further west OP solutions. I've never heard the term before.

jet stream=jet core

Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point

ahh the ol jet stream. Well that is usually way up there in the atmosphere cake, Higher than 500mb if I'm not mistaken. so I'd assume that would effect the most stacked of storms.

https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Jet_stream_core

[cheezyWXguy]

It is beyond odd to me to see the EC and UK on the east side of guidance while the GFS is on the west…

Edit: oof, Blown Away already made that comment

[SFLcane]

Big shift West on the 18Z.

TVCN big shift West to the Yucatan Channel

Yea surely thanks to the gfs nonsence lol.

[skyline385]

Pretty decent spread in EPS 12Z




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[toad strangler]

jet stream=jet core

Wxman57 looking at basic meteorology and that's a good thing at this point

ahh the ol jet stream. Well that is usually way up there in the atmosphere cake, Higher than 500mb if I'm not mistaken. so I'd assume that would effect the most stacked of storms.

https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Jet_stream_core

I know what the jet stream is lol, just don't hear about it in relation to tropical synoptics much. Usually it's 500mb that rules the talk on steering TC's. I am under the assumption the the jet stream is normally much higher than 500mb.

[skyline385]

Big shift West on the 18Z.

TVCN big shift West to the Yucatan Channel

Yea surely thanks to the gfs nonsence lol.

I wouldn’t call it nonsense, remember the GFS was the most accurate dynamical model for track guidance per NHC just last year.

GFS also nailed Earl and Fiona this season.


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[toad strangler]

Pretty decent spread in EPS 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/408b45191a4129ee41615ea7f4891cb4.jpg


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Can you post 180 hours or so instead?

[Ivanhater]

Big shift West on the 18Z.

TVCN big shift West to the Yucatan Channel

Yea surely thanks to the gfs nonsence lol.

It's not nonsense. Many models, including the Gfs and Euro ensembles show this missing the trough. Even the operational Euro is very close to missing, hence riding N into Georgia instead of being picked up.

Still days away from having any confidence

[skyline385]

Pretty decent spread in EPS 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/408b45191a4129ee41615ea7f4891cb4.jpg


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Can you post 180 hours or so instead?

Sure




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[Teban54]

Lmao
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572649821080809478

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572598639918485505

[skyline385]

Lmao
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572649821080809478

Ok this response is hilarious

 https://twitter.com/wxspy/status/1572653392656310276




For those out of the loop, a JetBlue passenger jet flew over the eye of Fiona while it was a high end Cat 2


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[SFLcane]

12z EPS.. Were is it going lol?

[skyline385]

12Z EPS upto 360 hrs




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[SFLcane]

It is beyond odd to me to see the EC and UK on the east side of guidance while the GFS is on the west…

Edit: oof, Blown Away already made that comment

differences in steering and timing, timing should be better once we have a storm to track.

[Ivanhater]

12Z EPS upto 360 hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/1f5090828fea1ac22d97ce1fe21df86b.jpg


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Quite the shift West. Many more members showing it missing the trough.

To be clear, I have no idea where it's going. I think it has just as much of a chance curving into SoFlo as the North central Gulf. It is very close