ATL: IAN - Models

[Spacecoast]

Subtle differences in the upper air pattern at 120 hours on the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS. On the GFS, the trough over the Great Lakes dips a little farther S than the Euro, which makes it look like it would want to pick it up, but 98L keeps moving quickly WNW. Seems like the whole difference is the speed of motion of 98L during the first few days.

Exactly what I was thinking. TVCN will split the difference, but it looked like the 12z Euro just made it through the door before it slammed around JAX... GFS looks just out of reach.

[Iceresistance]

Still heading due N south of the mouth of the Mississippi and strengthening. 938 mb

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022092118/231/sfcwind_mslp.gom.png

Jeez! That thing is HUGE!

[IcyTundra]

One thing I have noticed on these GFS runs is how slow 98L moves once it gets into the gulf. Could be due to a lack of strong steering.

[BobHarlem]

More or less the same place as 12Z, just takes a roundabout way to get there. Pensacola area.

[Javlin]

This run reminds me of Ivan

[Pelicane]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

It just barely did.

[SunnyThoughts]

Mobile it is.

[Javlin]

One thing I have noticed on these GFS runs is how slow 98L moves once it gets into the gulf. Could be due to a lack of strong steering.

Look at the 18z for yesterday was at the same location @240hrs so yeah an extra day has been added in.

[CrazyC83]

A slight steering change in that run would send it into Texas or Mexico. If an upper-level ridge builds over the continent, that could be next.

[hurricane2025]

Long ways to go

[Frank P]

Looks like a west shift of 30 miles or so. I watch for trends, GFS still shifting west, lets see what the next Euro run brings. Then again it was the 18z happy hour run. Models just doing what they do with a system so far out… I take each run this far out with a sip of Crown, heavy drinking start when they are 3-4 days out!

[MGC]

At the rate the GFS is shifting west 98L will be hitting Texas soon. 18Z GFS Pensacola/Gulf Shores......MGC

[Iceresistance]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

It actually did.

[CrazyC83]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

It actually did.

Basically it stalled out in the Gulf, then followed a sharper angle - a day later - than the previous run. I think a storm that stalls in the Gulf would likely be weaker though due to upwelling.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

[FLpanhandle91]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

It actually did.

Basically it stalled out in the Gulf, then followed a sharper angle - a day later - than the previous run. I think a storm that stalls in the Gulf would likely be weaker though due to upwelling.

That stall occurs over what is essentially the highest OHC in the Gulf though, right?

[Spacecoast]

Very unusual for the GFS to be so consistent..
Trend of last 10 runs:

[Iceresistance]

Very unusual for the GFS to be so consistent..
Trend of last 10 runs:

https://i.ibb.co/X8jyNhK/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-fh192-trend.gif

The GFS has been extremely consistent with the general intensity, but not at all in location, this is a tough forecast on location.

[Jr0d]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

As one of the mets said earlier, there is a fine line between a trough causing shear vs helping outflow. As we saw with Michael the trough that pulled him north helped strengthen the storm.

[FLpanhandle91]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

A large, high end 2 or 3 weakening at landfall unfortunately doesn't do much to mitigate storm surge. Opal absolutely wrecked my area with a very similar approach after being picked up by a deep trough.