ATL: IAN - Models

[loon]

Well, I am voting for the EURO simply because it means the trough must be a good one and we'll have fall in Houston finally very selfish I know. Hopefully wherever it lands folks are prepared and loss of life is minimal.

[SFLcane]

Another vantage point of this mornings 06z EPS.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1572957030129836034

[gatorcane]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think a LOT of people are going to be test-firing their generators over the next few days....here we go....

I should probably invest in one, but thankfully GFS = bad and Euro = good so we're safe here on the northern gulf /s

That’s a bit overly simplified. The gfs is largely on an island by itself (unless you count the Hmon). If you were to weight each model equally and take an average, the tracks taking it that far west hold a fairly small minority of support. I wouldn’t outright discount it though, and from what I can tell, whether it goes east or west comes down to a couple of factors:
- position/amplitude/progression of the trough, as a stronger slower trough is more likely to pick it up
- how the storm develops. In addition to the shear, or possibly as a result of it, the gfs shows competing centers which results in further delay to organization, allowing it to travel further west and feel less influence from the trough. As far as I can tell, it’s the only one to show competing centers to this degree, and already a pretty distinct vorticity center is currently showing up. With this in mind, I tend to favor the eastern consensus at the moment, but we’ll see how it plays out

[Jr0d]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

Wxman57 has stated he does not think the GFS is realistic. Based on that I will go with the EURO. Unfortunately that puts me in the cross hairs down here in Key West.

I did notice the "Windy" app that a lot of local captains use down here shifted west this morning, taking us out of the "danger zone". I am guessing it uses the GFS. Historically the error is too far west so I really do not like what I am seeing.

I will decide if I want to leave my boat in the water this weekend.

[fllawyer]

Wow...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnVHqt5G/ecm.png

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

Wxman57 has stated he does not think the GFS is realistic. Based on that I will go with the EURO. Unfortunately that puts me in the cross hairs down here in Key West.

I did notice the "Windy" app that a lot of local captains use down here shifted west this morning, taking us out of the "danger zone". I am guessing it uses the GFS. Historically the error is too far west so I really do not like what I am seeing.

I will decide if I want to leave my boat in the water this weekend.

I believe both Windy and Windfinder rely on GPS, which would explain why Key West and Big Pine forecasts show 15-20 kt max all week.

[ncapps]

FWIW, the 12z NAM isn't really developing it at all.

[Iceresistance]

FWIW, the 12z NAM isn't really developing it at all.

That's weird, because normally the NAM is insane with the storm intensity, maybe it wants to have none of it?

[SoupBone]

Just crazy that almost all the EPS are further east (well east) than the OP GFS. Like not even close. Who will win?

My money is on the ecmwf and its ensembles but we will see.

The European ensembles are definitely trending east with what appears to be a sharper, deeper trough. Also the more northward path thru the Caribbean is playing a role on ensemble mean future track through S Florida. Still a week away so we all know how much can change.

Isn't the Euro known for overdoing troughs though?

[cheezyWXguy]

FWIW, the 12z NAM isn't really developing it at all.

That's weird, because normally the NAM is insane with the storm intensity, maybe it wants to have none of it?

I don’t think the nam can’t see that far south, but even if it could, it’s probably the least credible model for TCs out there

[p1nheadlarry]

I think a LOT of people are going to be test-firing their generators over the next few days....here we go....

I should probably invest in one, but thankfully GFS = bad and Euro = good so we're safe here on the northern gulf /s

That’s a bit overly simplified. The gfs is largely on an island by itself (unless you count the Hmon). If you were to weight each model equally and take an average, the tracks taking it that far west hold a fairly small minority of support. I wouldn’t outright discount it though, and from what I can tell, whether it goes east or west comes down to a couple of factors:
- position/amplitude/progression of the trough, as a stronger slower trough is more likely to pick it up
- how the storm develops. In addition to the shear, or possibly as a result of it, the gfs shows competing centers which results in further delay to organization, allowing it to travel further west and feel less influence from the trough. As far as I can tell, it’s the only one to show competing centers to this degree, and already a pretty distinct vorticity center is currently showing up. With this in mind, I tend to favor the eastern consensus at the moment, but we’ll see how it plays out

I wouldn't outright discount the GFS either, but several here have. That's my point hence the [oversimplified] sarcasm. I agree that the short term progression of 98L is important, and probably more so than what the synoptic pattern will look like down the road as I posted before. Euro could have the short term evolution right but overestimate the UL ridge and trough coming down and vice versa for the GFS. People just seem a lot quicker to trash the GFS than they do the Euro in similar situations on this forum as someone who lurks here and mainly posts when a CONUS threat emerges.

[SFLcane]

We get it the NAM and the Nogaps are not developing it.

Come on people... lol

[p1nheadlarry]

FWIW, the 12z NAM isn't really developing it at all.

That's weird, because normally the NAM is insane with the storm intensity, maybe it wants to have none of it?

I don’t think the nam can’t see that far south, but even if it could, it’s probably the least credible model for TCs out there

And if it could, it would blow up the storm right at the boundary of its domain which would likely crash it a la Joaquin (maybe?) in 2015.

[toad strangler]

I should probably invest in one, but thankfully GFS = bad and Euro = good so we're safe here on the northern gulf /s

That’s a bit overly simplified. The gfs is largely on an island by itself (unless you count the Hmon). If you were to weight each model equally and take an average, the tracks taking it that far west hold a fairly small minority of support. I wouldn’t outright discount it though, and from what I can tell, whether it goes east or west comes down to a couple of factors:
- position/amplitude/progression of the trough, as a stronger slower trough is more likely to pick it up
- how the storm develops. In addition to the shear, or possibly as a result of it, the gfs shows competing centers which results in further delay to organization, allowing it to travel further west and feel less influence from the trough. As far as I can tell, it’s the only one to show competing centers to this degree, and already a pretty distinct vorticity center is currently showing up. With this in mind, I tend to favor the eastern consensus at the moment, but we’ll see how it plays out

I wouldn't outright discount the GFS either, but several here have. That's my point hence the [oversimplified] sarcasm. I agree that the short term progression of 98L is important, and probably more so than what the synoptic pattern will look like down the road as I posted before. Euro could have the short term evolution right but overestimate the UL ridge and trough coming down and vice versa for the GFS. People just seem a lot quicker to trash the GFS than they do the Euro in similar situations on this forum as someone who lurks here and mainly posts when a CONUS threat emerges.

OR ..... and probably closer to reality, it might have more to do with wxman57's multiple thoughts on the GFS over the past few days.

[ncapps]

FWIW, the 12z NAM isn't really developing it at all.

That's weird, because normally the NAM is insane with the storm intensity, maybe it wants to have none of it?

I don’t think the nam can’t see that far south, but even if it could, it’s probably the least credible model for TCs out there

Not sure. That could be case but it does look like it has a TD/TS forming and moving very North towards Jamaica and Cuba where it seems to get shredded.

[LarryWx]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.

[FLpanhandle91]

I think one thing to note here is that until the trough can get nailed down, there will continue to be large swings and discrepancies among the models. With such a huge steering component still unresolved, there will be no in between. It either misses the trough and gets stuck under ridging (west solutions) or it gets yanked north/NNE by the stronger trough (east solutions). On top of that, there still isn't a closed low for these models to initiate on.

[toad strangler]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.

Charley happened in the first half of August. gator brought that one up earlier and since its 18 years might have not realized how early in the season that was to have this "October" climo track to it. Point being, TC's don't read climo textbooks before planning their trip
Anomalies happen all the time. hmmm

[gatorcane]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.

Yes good point, speed is key. How this plays out will be interesting. Of course climo doesn't suggest a NE turn but looking at the latest EPS and Euro OP, it is very much on the table.