ATL: IAN - Models

[sma10]

I know everyone wants to know where 98L
is going (assuming it develops) but to keep
on jumping on every model run and say it’s
going there is ridiculous at this still early stage.

This is true. I didn't mean to suggest SFL will definitely be landfall point - it's too early and only 1 model run. The only takeaway, is that the ICON simply has shifted east

[LarryWx]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.

Charley happened in the first half of August. gator brought that one up earlier and since its 18 years might have not realized how early in the season that was to have this "October" climo track to it. Point being, TC's don't read climo textbooks before planning their trip
Anomalies happen all the time. hmmm

Indeed, mean climo is important to keep in mind but one needs to keep in mind that climo is in reality a mix of many possibilities with tracks on both sides of the mean climo. When folks refer to climo, they're often referring to either the mean or mode track during a period of the calendar. But climo doesn't say that it necessarily has to go near that track to behave per climo. Both the mode and mean for storms with genesis during 9/21-30 (we're looking at progged genesis smack dab in the middle of 9/21-30 making using that period as a good one to use) that later reach the NW Caribbean is clearly not a NE track across the S half of FL. Rather, it is a track toward the FL Panhandle. But if one looks at the history of these tracks, they will see many tracks on both sides of that Panhandle track:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/sep_21_30.png

On this map one can see that for those that travel over the NW Caribbean that there are many tracks that go anywhere from the E 2/3 of LA all of the way to those that even barely miss S FL to the SE over the NW Bahamas. So, using climo to say that 98L should follow the mean track from the NW Caribbean to the FL Panhandle just because it will have genesis near the middle of 9/21-30 is not using climo the best way imho. Climo says that at or near the FL Panhandle is the highest chance but it doesn't say it is anywhere near the only chance.

Aside: The map for geneses that occur OCT 1-10 and that are then either already in or later get to the NW Caribbean have a mean track that is further SE than the 9/21-30 geneses tracks with an increased chance for a NE crossing over the S half of FL though even that map has tracks on both sides of that and with the mean near the FL Big Bend:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

If we look at the 10/11-20 map, it has an even further SE mean track near far S FL with many tracks from the NW Caribbean going over the SE third of FL or NW Bahamas:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_11_20.png

[tolakram]

I've seen it. It goes over Miami

Please source your information.

Well, unfortunately I'm not currently in a position to attach any images. But the run is complete and easily accessible at weather.us

Oh good grief, you mean this run! Should not have doubted you, sorry.

[SFLcane]

oooooh!

[sma10]

Please source your information.

Well, unfortunately I'm not currently in a position to attach any images. But the run is complete and easily accessible at weather.us

Oh good grief, you mean this run!

https://i.imgur.com/80ed7ng.gif

Yes, thank you Mark. Did not mean to cause trouble

[MississippiWx]

GFS has lost a couple of allies in the ICON and CMC in the past few runs. HWRF as well. Still think the GFS is out to lunch. Wild shift to the north and east by the ICON. I guess it goes to show just how sensitive this pattern is to slight changes.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS is already way more north.

[sma10]

12z GFS is already way more north.

Yeah GFS at around 60 hours, doing same thing as ICON

[tolakram]

GFS competing centers

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, GFS is caving.

[sma10]

GFS competing centers

https://i.imgur.com/cABxSN3.png

This may have been the issue all along. GFS prob thought the SW part of the envelope would consolidate. Now the question becomes how far east do the trends go. Could this actually end up doing a Nov-type hard east turn?

[tolakram]

GFS competing centers

https://i.imgur.com/cABxSN3.png

This may have been the issue all along. GFS prob thought the SW part of the envelope would consolidate. Now the question becomes how far east do the trends go. Could this actually end up doing a Nov-type hard east turn?

East of Florida is always on the table, I just don't like to say it until it's clear. This cold front that just came through the midwest is serious. Unfortunately this is also the pattern to give the Florida west coast a solid strike as well.

[aspen]

GFS is far weaker than most other models and doesn’t even have a Cat 1 on Monday yet. Heading into the Yucatan again.

[toad strangler]

GFS competing centers

https://i.imgur.com/cABxSN3.png

This may have been the issue all along. GFS prob thought the SW part of the envelope would consolidate. Now the question becomes how far east do the trends go. Could this actually end up doing a Nov-type hard east turn?

East of FL is much more likely than LA IMO

[skyline385]

Please source your information.

Well, unfortunately I'm not currently in a position to attach any images. But the run is complete and easily accessible at weather.us

Oh good grief, you mean this run! Should not have doubted you, sorry.

Guess i get a Cat 2 over me then, although i still think ICON has been overly bullish this season and has been right-biased everytime because of it.


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[sma10]

Yeah, GFS is caving.

It is. But not clear yet if it'll cave as completely as ICON

[tolakram]

GFS is far weaker than most other models and doesn’t even have a Cat 1 on Monday yet. Heading into the Yucatan again.

Might want to hang on a few frames.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572978156474372096

[tolakram]

so far

[tolakram]