ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#261 Postby cane5 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:19 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.

Yes it would seem logical….
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#262 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:50 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.


That is actually not correct in this scenario. A stronger system will feel the steering of the upper level winds which are more out of the northeast. This would drive the system farther south and west. A weaker system would be steered more southeast to northwest. The longer it takes 98L to organize the more northerly it will go until it reaches the Western Caribbean where the flow changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#263 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:53 am

MississippiWx wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.


That is actually not correct in this scenario. A stronger system will feel the steering of the upper level winds which are more out of the northeast. This would drive the system farther south and west. A weaker system would be steered more southeast to northwest. The longer it takes 98L to organize the more northerly it will go until it reaches the Western Caribbean where the flow changes.


Actually, if it were to deepen to even a moderate TS it would begin to follow the weakness left by Fiona and would gain latitude more so Until the ridging fills back in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#264 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:03 am

Just a little increase in convection and this should be a TD.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#265 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:36 am

Fiona is going to start accelerating to the north and when that happens the outflow that is shearing the system is going to be greatly reduced and the vector will change as 98L moves further west also reducing the shear. All eyes should be on how far south that cold front gets, and the timing is also going to be key.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#266 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:39 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#267 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:43 am

Image
I see a teeny tiny center…lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#268 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:45 am

Poonwalker wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Ummm.. that's the worst possible trajectory in terms of damage/cost/insurance etc. A ton of people have flocked to the Tampa Bay area from NY and Cali and are sitting on the water with their new toys. Good grief..


Not only that, but the last hurricane to come in at a similar vector was Charley, and that was south of Tampa Bay. A strong hurricane pushing in at that vector just north of Tampa Bay would be a huge disaster that many people that are new to the area wont understand. This is much different than an Irma which didn't drive water up into the bay in the way a storm would coming in perpendicular to the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#269 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:49 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/Qp1wKBN/E2-BC0001-AAAB-493-B-8132-4703824-FA66-E.jpg [/url]
I see a teeny tiny center…lol


That is just a small little edy rotating around the larger more defined llc to the SW a little.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#270 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:14 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#271 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:17 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#272 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:40 am

I see that the ICON shifted well to the east - across western Cuba then ENE across FL Keys and up the east coast of FL to the northern Bahamas. GFS way east, too, though likely still too far west into the Gulf. West winds aloft across the Gulf will steer it to FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#273 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:47 am

When the western outlier is still FL...This is likely a FL storm. If it misses FL it will likely be to the east rather than the west. This system is presently convectively vapid but it has been tenacious. I think it blossoms quickly once upper level winds abate..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#274 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:53 am

It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#275 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.


Question, your other point of landfall near Fort myers is starting to look promising i'd think?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#276 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:04 pm

annnnddd so it begins....First towers beginning to fire off right over the LLC. that portion of the system still under some shear but shear is dropping fast just to the west of the LLC.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#277 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:21 pm

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#278 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.


Question, your other point of landfall near Fort myers is starting to look promising i'd think?


That's a very good possibility. It may take another 48 hours before we have a storm. NHC will likely initiate PTC advisories tomorrow, due to watches needed for Jamaica. One transitory shower over a weak swirl is meaningless. Look at the shear over it from Fiona's outflow. It'll develop, but not until it clears Fiona's shear on Saturday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#279 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:26 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........


I wouldn’t get to comfortable, the western Caribbean is rocket fuel and since the models do show extreme possibilities with the upper environment even though they don’t show high intensity, the one thing models tend to be notoriously bad at is max intensity so while the models aren’t showing severe intensity, they could be underestimating with intensity in the western Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#280 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:28 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

The storm hasn't even formed yet, models will probably continue to jump around just like they do for every single storm, both with track and intensity
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