ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.

Yes it would seem logical….

[MississippiWx]

Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.

That is actually not correct in this scenario. A stronger system will feel the steering of the upper level winds which are more out of the northeast. This would drive the system farther south and west. A weaker system would be steered more southeast to northwest. The longer it takes 98L to organize the more northerly it will go until it reaches the Western Caribbean where the flow changes.

[Aric Dunn]

Until we have a legit TC center, I wouldn't trust any of these models tbh.
The longer this stays weak, the further west it will go.

That is actually not correct in this scenario. A stronger system will feel the steering of the upper level winds which are more out of the northeast. This would drive the system farther south and west. A weaker system would be steered more southeast to northwest. The longer it takes 98L to organize the more northerly it will go until it reaches the Western Caribbean where the flow changes.

Actually, if it were to deepen to even a moderate TS it would begin to follow the weakness left by Fiona and would gain latitude more so Until the ridging fills back in.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a little increase in convection and this should be a TD.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Fiona is going to start accelerating to the north and when that happens the outflow that is shearing the system is going to be greatly reduced and the vector will change as 98L moves further west also reducing the shear. All eyes should be on how far south that cold front gets, and the timing is also going to be key.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

I see a teeny tiny center…lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Ummm.. that's the worst possible trajectory in terms of damage/cost/insurance etc. A ton of people have flocked to the Tampa Bay area from NY and Cali and are sitting on the water with their new toys. Good grief..

Not only that, but the last hurricane to come in at a similar vector was Charley, and that was south of Tampa Bay. A strong hurricane pushing in at that vector just north of Tampa Bay would be a huge disaster that many people that are new to the area wont understand. This is much different than an Irma which didn't drive water up into the bay in the way a storm would coming in perpendicular to the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Qp1wKBN/E2-BC0001-AAAB-493-B-8132-4703824-FA66-E.jpg [/url]
I see a teeny tiny center…lol

That is just a small little edy rotating around the larger more defined llc to the SW a little.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572964322447327233

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1572966951944687617

[wxman57]

I see that the ICON shifted well to the east - across western Cuba then ENE across FL Keys and up the east coast of FL to the northern Bahamas. GFS way east, too, though likely still too far west into the Gulf. West winds aloft across the Gulf will steer it to FL.

[psyclone]

When the western outlier is still FL...This is likely a FL storm. If it misses FL it will likely be to the east rather than the west. This system is presently convectively vapid but it has been tenacious. I think it blossoms quickly once upper level winds abate..

[wxman57]

It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.

[SFLcane]

It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.

Question, your other point of landfall near Fort myers is starting to look promising i'd think?

[Aric Dunn]

annnnddd so it begins....First towers beginning to fire off right over the LLC. that portion of the system still under some shear but shear is dropping fast just to the west of the LLC.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

[wxman57]

It should be encountering increasing wind shear when it reaches the Gulf. In addition, there may be a good bit of dry air flowing into its western side prior to landfall. May be at its peak near western Cuba.

Question, your other point of landfall near Fort myers is starting to look promising i'd think?

That's a very good possibility. It may take another 48 hours before we have a storm. NHC will likely initiate PTC advisories tomorrow, due to watches needed for Jamaica. One transitory shower over a weak swirl is meaningless. Look at the shear over it from Fiona's outflow. It'll develop, but not until it clears Fiona's shear on Saturday.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

I wouldn’t get to comfortable, the western Caribbean is rocket fuel and since the models do show extreme possibilities with the upper environment even though they don’t show high intensity, the one thing models tend to be notoriously bad at is max intensity so while the models aren’t showing severe intensity, they could be underestimating with intensity in the western Caribbean

[ElectricStorm]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

The storm hasn't even formed yet, models will probably continue to jump around just like they do for every single storm, both with track and intensity