ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1241 Postby ncapps » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:59 am

GFS trying to split Cuba/Yuca and get into gulf.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1242 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:00 am

IcyTundra wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro has been very consistent with the south of Ft Meyers idea now for many runs. It makes way more sense with the Tampa/ Sarasota strike such a rare climo entry location.

With that said the complete miss of FL peninsula is getting less likely by the minute.


It all depends on the timing of the turn. As we saw with Charley small changes in timing can make a big difference in the track.


Charley was pretty compact and this looks to be on the smallish size as well, from what I can tell.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1243 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:00 am

GFS loop

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1244 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:02 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1245 Postby blp » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:02 am

Also, slightly further south. It may actually bring landfall south because we know it will head NE.

EdIT: nevermind move due North.
Last edited by blp on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1246 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:03 am

blp wrote:Also, slightly further south. It may actually bring landfall south because we know it will head NE.

It's roughly the same.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1247 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:04 am

Heading N: Tampa? :eek:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1248 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:05 am

12z GFS sticking to its guns with a stronger system. Identical to the 06z GFS.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1249 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:05 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1250 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:06 am

Nope, still heading N. Big change on the GFS

EDIT: Wrong run.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1251 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:07 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Nope, still heading N. Big change on the GFS

wait is is slowing down, should turn NE
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1252 Postby ncapps » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:08 am

North of Tampa?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1253 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:09 am

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
Image
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1254 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1255 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am

AutoPenalti wrote:So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?


It's having the same issue that wxman57 explained about the GFS still.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1256 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am

AutoPenalti wrote:So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/dom8FUP.png


Thats just dumb!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1257 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1258 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:11 am



12Z GEM has shifted a bit west.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1259 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:12 am

Crawling north
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1260 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:12 am

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