ATL: IAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Quite the change.

[TheHurricaneGod]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/dom8FUP.png

Thats just dumb!

It should have started turning NE around hour 90 if you look at the z500 vort map.

[Michele B]

I have my money on the most consistent ECMWF and its mean which are still across South Florida. GFS is likely as stated many times to far west still and its been all over the place.

https://i.postimg.cc/bNLPgTHY/tcvn.jpg

Tampa or Ft. Myers coming from South to North is only a 30-50 mile adjustment east or west. I'm not putting my money on either wIth such a small margin of error. Both need to be prepared. CHARLEY proved a small jog can be massive on impacts.

Yeah, that "Charley jog" certainly took a lot of people by surprise. I saw that slight "right turn jog" Charley took and knew it was game on.

But it was the "Andrew 1-degree" that made a believer outta me! We were "1 degree" difference from Ft. Lauderdale to Homestead when Andrew blew through. We went through 12 hours of no electricity, but barely even a limb off one tree.....compared to.....well, compared to Homestead.


One degree, 60 miles can be a world of difference.

[SFLcane]

Its been all over the place the gfs

[Kazmit]

The GFS is real stubborn... still insisting on that stall and well west of the other models.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM west shift:

[ncapps]

Strange run of the GFS

Appears to stall well west of Tampa and begins to weaken a little.

[toad strangler]

The GFS is real stubborn... still insisting on that stall and well west of the other models.

I've been saying for days that this stall just isn't on the table. I don't buy it for a second. FUBAR

[skyline385]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?

Because of the ridge to the east of it (look at the 588 dm height)




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[gatorcane]

Strange run of the GFS

Appears to stall well west of Tampa and begins to weaken a little.

Tampa shield in full-effect. Last time that areas saw a major was 1921.

[tolakram]

Slow north and weakening. I think the GFS believes it gets stuck on the left side of that ridge.

[caneseddy]

12Z GEM west shift:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZQq7bnF/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-19.png

Still landfalls in the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area which is not that different from the last run.

[jlauderdal]

So why is the GFS ramming through the trough?

Because the gfs does that sometimes, models are far from perfect. NHC track looks real good, maybe a little too far W but they have time too adjust.

[skyline385]

ICON has the same ridge too just more eastwards so it stalls offshore near WPB




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[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET a big shift back to the SW with it stalling at the 85W longitude 200 miles west of Naples:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2022 0 14.4N 69.4W 1009 24
0000UTC 24.09.2022 12 15.1N 71.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 24.09.2022 24 15.0N 74.1W 1007 29
0000UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 76.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.8N 78.5W 1004 31
0000UTC 26.09.2022 60 17.3N 80.4W 1002 33
1200UTC 26.09.2022 72 19.1N 82.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 27.09.2022 84 21.2N 82.8W 998 40
1200UTC 27.09.2022 96 23.4N 84.1W 997 38
0000UTC 28.09.2022 108 24.5N 85.0W 995 42
1200UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.2N 85.1W 996 44
0000UTC 29.09.2022 132 25.9N 84.9W 996 48
1200UTC 29.09.2022 144 26.1N 84.8W 996 50

[RevanTheJedi96]

Very strange run. The GFS has been so good recently that it makes me believe it's seeing something the other models aren't.

Guessing that TD 09 riding up the East Cosst is off the table now?

[SFLcane]

12Z GEM west shift:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZQq7bnF/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-19.png

Still landfalls in the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area which is not that different from the last run.

Old run my bad. Yes a shift into the gulf. Euro next.

South florida ends with a few showers

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC I’m seeing is way west of 00z…. Looks like it’s making a loop in the GOM.

[tolakram]

[CronkPSU]

Slow north and weakening. I think the GFS believes it gets stuck on the left side of that ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/PUQtxCV.png

florida's gulf coast would be still hit very hard by this depending on the size of the storm