ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?

[ConvergenceZone]

Consensus shifted to just south of Tampa, but I think it was pulled north by the goofy GFS model. Not buying it.

of course the downside of it hitting further south of Tampa is that it will once again emerge over the Atlantic and could be an east coast threat a few days later...................

[LadyBug72]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

956 is a Cat 3

[Blown Away]

18z Best Track at 14.6N.

AL, 09, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 707W, 30, 1006, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

Wxman57 was right, slightly R of the 11am track already.

[tolakram]

Slowly building on the west side, in lower shear.



floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ObsessedMiami]

It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..

People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

My nephew who works at Walmart on Bird Road in Miami says the water is starting to fly out the door. Just wait until the 5pm SFL News cycle to start. Get your gas tonight

[SconnieCane]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

956 is a Cat 3

There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to pressure vs. MSW. Generally, smaller storms with a very tight gradient can have quite intense inner core winds with a relatively high pressure. 956 MB might be a mid-range Cat. 4 in such a storm, while only a low-end Cat. 2 in a very large storm with a much broader pressure gradient (Think Charley vs. Sandy).

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1573389435642806283




This is going to be a communications challenge.

[Teban54]

If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1573372492986847232

[LadyBug72]

If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?

I would think so....it makes sense to me for 9 to get H and 10 to get I because of H coming before I....but who am I?

[cycloneye]

Is over for the name. 10 gets it.

AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE,

[canebeard]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

probably a 3. 943 is typically high pt. of cat 4

[Teban54]

Is over for the name. 10 gets it.

AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE,

With TD10 becoming Hermine, the I curse continues.

[KWT]

Oh dear, looks like yet another problematic I named storm for the NW Caribbean/SE USA to deal with....

[AnnularCane]

It would probably have to take maybe several consecutive years to consider the I curse broken. I'll wait for the advisory just to be sure though.

[SconnieCane]

From the NHC:

In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida
peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids.

[Gary543]

It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..

People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

My nephew who works at Walmart on Bird Road in Miami says the water is starting to fly out the door. Just wait until the 5pm SFL News cycle to start. Get your gas tonight

Costco in North Palm Beach was a madhouse at lunch; both inside the store and the lines for gas.

[CrazyC83]

Oh dear, looks like yet another problematic I named storm for the NW Caribbean/SE USA to deal with....

Can we just get 99L to suddenly become a TS then?

[galaxy401]

Maybe Ten can just be called TS Ten until Nine finally becomes Hermine, then give Ten the name of Ian.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It would probably have to take maybe several consecutive years to consider the I curse broken. I'll wait for the advisory just to be sure though.

I actually don't think the "I" curse is real... generally speaking, it seems most season land on the 9th named storm of the year in mid-September, which is right around peak. Not surprising many become notable. 2020 being an exception, with its monster "I" storm being in the Greek alphabet.