ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#661 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:03 pm

If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#662 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:Consensus shifted to just south of Tampa, but I think it was pulled north by the goofy GFS model. Not buying it.


of course the downside of it hitting further south of Tampa is that it will once again emerge over the Atlantic and could be an east coast threat a few days later...................
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#663 Postby LadyBug72 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:06 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?



956 is a Cat 3
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#664 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track at 14.6N.

AL, 09, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 707W, 30, 1006, TD


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat


INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH


Wxman57 was right, slightly R of the 11am track already.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#665 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:09 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#666 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:
psyclone wrote:It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..


People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

My nephew who works at Walmart on Bird Road in Miami says the water is starting to fly out the door. Just wait until the 5pm SFL News cycle to start. Get your gas tonight
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#667 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:11 pm

LadyBug72 wrote:
SouthernBreeze wrote:I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?



956 is a Cat 3


There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to pressure vs. MSW. Generally, smaller storms with a very tight gradient can have quite intense inner core winds with a relatively high pressure. 956 MB might be a mid-range Cat. 4 in such a storm, while only a low-end Cat. 2 in a very large storm with a much broader pressure gradient (Think Charley vs. Sandy).
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#668 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1573389435642806283




This is going to be a communications challenge.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#669 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1573372492986847232


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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#670 Postby LadyBug72 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If this and TD 10 get named at the same time, this becomes Hermine and 10 becomes Ian, correct?


I would think so....it makes sense to me for 9 to get H and 10 to get I because of H coming before I....but who am I? :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#671 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:17 pm

Is over for the name. 10 gets it.

AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE,
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#672 Postby canebeard » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:17 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?


probably a 3. 943 is typically high pt. of cat 4
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#673 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is over for the name. 10 gets it.

AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE,

With TD10 becoming Hermine, the I curse continues.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#674 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:20 pm

Oh dear, looks like yet another problematic I named storm for the NW Caribbean/SE USA to deal with....
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#675 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:20 pm

It would probably have to take maybe several consecutive years to consider the I curse broken. :lol: I'll wait for the advisory just to be sure though.
Last edited by AnnularCane on Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#676 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:21 pm

:eek: From the NHC:

In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida
peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#677 Postby Gary543 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
psyclone wrote:It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..


People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

My nephew who works at Walmart on Bird Road in Miami says the water is starting to fly out the door. Just wait until the 5pm SFL News cycle to start. Get your gas tonight


Costco in North Palm Beach was a madhouse at lunch; both inside the store and the lines for gas.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#678 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:25 pm

KWT wrote:Oh dear, looks like yet another problematic I named storm for the NW Caribbean/SE USA to deal with....


Can we just get 99L to suddenly become a TS then?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#679 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:31 pm

Maybe Ten can just be called TS Ten until Nine finally becomes Hermine, then give Ten the name of Ian. :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#680 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:32 pm

AnnularCane wrote:It would probably have to take maybe several consecutive years to consider the I curse broken. :lol: I'll wait for the advisory just to be sure though.


I actually don't think the "I" curse is real... generally speaking, it seems most season land on the 9th named storm of the year in mid-September, which is right around peak. Not surprising many become notable. 2020 being an exception, with its monster "I" storm being in the Greek alphabet.
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