ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Consensus of GFS and Euro is West-Central Florida so Tampa St.Pete Clearwater in the crosshairs at the moment.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1573381576712658944

[skyline385]

I know that strength is off many times when it comes to models, but what Cat is the EURO now forecasting upon a Florida Landfall? I can never tell by the numbers...

94.2 knots, so high Cat 2 but at those pressures and with a small core could easily be a major. Remember Global models don’t work with small core systems and don’t resolve mesovortices.




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[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[CourierPR]

Consensus of GFS and Euro is West-Central Florida so Tampa St.Pete Clearwater in the crosshairs at the moment.

I just looked and the Euro is not locked on west-central FL.

[gatorcane]

Consensus of GFS and Euro is West-Central Florida so Tampa St.Pete Clearwater in the crosshairs at the moment.

I just looked and the Euro is not locked on west-central FL.

But the consensus of the two models is.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro looks similar like the NHC in terms of track & intensity, just a tad further south.

[tolakram]

Closeup of Euro MSLP and 3H wind gusts. Please keep in mind this is just one model and accuracy of Euro wind gust prediction is unknown.

[Beef Stew]

Worth nothing that MLSP usually runs high on the Euro, and most of models other than the HMON and HWRF for that matter. The bigger takeaway is the track and progression, and that if the pressure-conservative euro is showing 949, conditions appear to be ripe for continual intensification.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573387175345156096

[cycloneye]

TVCN goes left.

[Blown Away]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/MKWBWyDh/euro44.png

That slight adjustment W going over the skinny/lower part of Cuba helped aide this monster on the other side. JMHO

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573388665308545024

[psyclone]

Consensus of GFS and Euro is West-Central Florida so Tampa St.Pete Clearwater in the crosshairs at the moment.

You don't need to be very far west of a northward moving hurricane to escape signifcant impacts. as of now west central florida is on the "good side" of the NHC's track...it is south and east central florida that would get creamed...but of course that can change.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET 168 is ~100 miles WSW of Tampa heading NNE to NE. Extrapolating this would lean toward it coming ashore a little north of Tampa.

[ronjon]

Consensus of GFS and Euro is West-Central Florida so Tampa St.Pete Clearwater in the crosshairs at the moment.

You don't need to be very far west of a northward moving hurricane to escape signifcant impacts. as of now west central florida is on the "good side" of the NHC's track...it is south and east central florida that would get creamed...but of course that can change.

Yes but until GFS and HWRF move toward the Euro we still need to be concerned in the Tampa Bay area northward.

[tolakram]

A lot slower than previous runs.

[BobHarlem]

TVCN goes left.

https://i.imgur.com/KWcinwF.png

Hard to tell with that plot, but does it actually stall for a bit over florida on the tvcn there?

[Teban54]

12z EPS
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472

[ConvergenceZone]

A bit bummed out that this isn't heading out to sea like I thought the models would move towards today.... Yea I know, I'm guilty of -removed-, but I really thought and was hoping the trend would continue.... Guess it's time to fire up the weather channel the next few days....Not a fan of their regular programing, but they have amazing hurricane coverage.............