ATL: IAN - Models

[Jonny]

Ivan without the V. lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

Personally, stuff like this tells me all I need to know about the GFS vs the Euro at the current time.

[sma10]

GEFS shifted East, so far thru 90hr. ~30% curve into SFL

[PTrackerLA]

Another thing to note in recent models, the gargantuan storm once in the Gulf that was modeled for several days seems to have vanished. Ian looks fairly compact on the 18z GFS so that could be a bit of good news when it comes to the storm surge potential next week. It seems like I've seen this happen quite often in long-range modeled storms, they don't turn out to be nearly as large as initially thought.

[PTrackerLA]

https://imgur.com/a/txpNMvg

Personally, stuff like this tells me all I need to know about the GFS vs the Euro at the current time.

The Euro and it's ensembles could very well be right this time, but I'm sure Houston and Galveston are very happy they were wrong back in 2022 with Laura. That was one of the most epic fails of that model in the short range I can remember with a TC.

[ronjon]

We've seen this show before with a few exceptions. Euro has the better handle on steering currents and stays consistent while GFS flops around like a dying fish until 48-72 hours out and then it magically aligns with Euro. At least I hope for my sake sitting on the nature coast here. We'll have model consensus, but probably not until 3 days out.

[zzzh]

Very similar environment. I will not be surprised if Delta-level RI happens.

[skyline385]

Another thing to note in recent models, the gargantuan storm once in the Gulf that was modeled for several days seems to have vanished. Ian looks fairly compact on the 18z GFS so that could be a bit of good news when it comes to the storm surge potential next week. It seems like I've seen this happen quite often in long-range modeled storms, they don't turn out to be nearly as large as initially thought.

Well GFS shows TS winds up to 140nm out so not exactly tiny imo

[skyline385]

115 kts peak on the GFS which could be an underestimate because its a global model

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

[PTrackerLA]

The GFS was indicating over 400 nm wide diameter TS winds back on Wednesday. By the way skyline, thanks for teaching me there's a distance tool built into Tropical Tidbits. Literally never noticed that button after all these years .

[Frank P]

Another thing to note in recent models, the gargantuan storm once in the Gulf that was modeled for several days seems to have vanished. Ian looks fairly compact on the 18z GFS so that could be a bit of good news when it comes to the storm surge potential next week. It seems like I've seen this happen quite often in long-range modeled storms, they don't turn out to be nearly as large as initially thought.

Well GFS shows TS winds up to 140nm out so not exactly tiny imo

https://i.imgur.com/x9wwf53.jpg

Also GFS indicates it will be a slow mover, and perpendicular to the coast, that also exacerbates the storm surge. GFS mode run, if verifies,would produce quite a surge especially in this are

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

Look for a blend between them most likely.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

This is why the GFS is further west than the Euro, which is rare. I believe that the same bias it showed with storms like IRMA could be at play here. The GFS progresses troughs much quicker than the Euro does, but in this case, that results in the system being "left behind," which untimely results in a much more western outcome. Same biases are in play with both models as usual it seems.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/sK33uUn.png
https://i.imgur.com/Mvvtp66.png
Very similar environment. I will not be surprised if Delta-level RI happens.

Yikes, Ian has an even longer time span of <10kt deep layer shear than Delta. Shear doesn’t pick up again until Ian is about to make landfall in Cuba, and it should be near or less than 10kt by tomorrow morning.

[Iceresistance]

:uarrow: The GFS was indicating over 400 nm wide diameter TS winds back on Wednesday. By the way skyline, thanks for teaching me there's a distance tool built into Tropical Tidbits. Literally never noticed that button after all these years .

There is a distance tool? I never knew that even existed!

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

This is why the GFS is further west than the Euro, which is rare. I believe that the same bias it showed with storms like IRMA could be at play here. The GFS progresses troughs much quicker than the Euro does, but in this case, that results in the system being "left behind," which untimely results in a much more western outcome. Same biases are in play with both models as usual it seems.

For what it's worth, in the 18z GEFS at least half the members curve into FL from Tampa on south

[hurricaneCW]

I don't buy the GFS. Its had a west bias all season.

Until the Euro makes a big move I ain't buying it.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

This is why the GFS is further west than the Euro, which is rare. I believe that the same bias it showed with storms like IRMA could be at play here. The GFS progresses troughs much quicker than the Euro does, but in this case, that results in the system being "left behind," which untimely results in a much more western outcome. Same biases are in play with both models as usual it seems.

For what it's worth, in the 18z GEFS at least half the members curve into FL from Tampa on south

Oh I am well aware. That was basically all I needed to see.... Without overthinking the synoptics of the situation, we have literally been seeing more members of the GEFS falling in line with the Euro since last night.

[caneman]

I don't buy the GFS. Its had a west bias all season.

Until the Euro makes a big move I ain't buying it.

There isn't a big move coming from South to North. It's a minimal longitude move from Ft. Myers to Tampa when traversing that way. Trust me, I know. I was in the path of Charley until a minimal jog occured