ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

500MB trend coming more inline with Euro, but not sure if it's enough to pull it east yet.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/ekcOFjR.png

Is that more intense than earlier runs?

[tolakram]

Grabbed it! Moving NE

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/ekcOFjR.png

Is that more intense than earlier runs?

About the same as 18z which peaked at 932 mb. Both are stronger than previous runs.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573524932625109003

[ncapps]

Hopefully the stall out in Gulf can weaken it prior to turning NE further north.

[BobHarlem]

0z starting to drift east toward tampa, moving really slow.

[AJC3]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573524932625109003

5 part tweet. Pay particularly close attention to part 4, because this is exactly what those two models are depicting in this case. The pattern aloft associated with zonally (W-E) oriented surface cold fronts is not conducive to having a TC turn eastward. This is because the trough aloft either doesn't have enough amplitude to turn the feature, or lifts out too quickly, or both. This usually results in some sort of stall.
 https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/1572682408620703745

[tolakram]

trend


500mb comparison Euro and GFS, now mostly the same at this point.

[otowntiger]

0z starting to drift east toward tampa, moving really slow.

and weakening pretty fast.

[tolakram]

weakening fast

[BobHarlem]

GFS takes its sweet time west of tampa (like 24 hours) but eventually landfalls at Cedar Key. Weakens a lot out in the Gulf, but it probably still has excessive surge with that. Shift east from 18z, but still showing the stall and getting ripped apart in the NE gulf.

[Pelicane]

It'd be great if that dry-air mass withered it away before landfall.

[ncapps]

GFS takes its sweet time west of tampa (like 24 hours) but eventually landfalls at Cedar Key

https://i.imgur.com/J6ERc03.png

Most likely a TS at that point. At least wind damage isn't a concern with this run.

[Teban54]

That's quite a rapid weakening on 0z GFS, from 934 mb at peak (108 hrs) to 992 mb near landfall (156 hrs). That's a 58 mb rise in 48 hours!

Unfortunately, the Euro runs (which take a more S path) typically have Ian intensify up to landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

So it looks like the GFS takes it a little further west than the euro and crosses the western tip of Cuba where the euro is a bit further east as it crosses Cuba. Which if that’s the case it makes sense if the GFS solution misses the trough and meanders for a little bit before heading more NE. That timing and turn to the north will be a big deal in where it makes landfall in Florida.

[tolakram]

0z run

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573525430149255175

[Poonwalker]

Ummm.. that’s a cat 4 dropping to a TS?