
ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
500MB trend coming more inline with Euro, but not sure if it's enough to pull it east yet.


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Grabbed it! Moving NE


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ekcOFjR.png
Is that more intense than earlier runs?
About the same as 18z which peaked at 932 mb. Both are stronger than previous runs.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Hopefully the stall out in Gulf can weaken it prior to turning NE further north.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573524932625109003
5 part tweet. Pay particularly close attention to part 4, because this is exactly what those two models are depicting in this case. The pattern aloft associated with zonally (W-E) oriented surface cold fronts is not conducive to having a TC turn eastward. This is because the trough aloft either doesn't have enough amplitude to turn the feature, or lifts out too quickly, or both. This usually results in some sort of stall.
https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/1572682408620703745
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

trend

500mb comparison Euro and GFS, now mostly the same at this point.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
and weakening pretty fast.BobHarlem wrote:0z starting to drift east toward tampa, moving really slow.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
weakening fast


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
GFS takes its sweet time west of tampa (like 24 hours) but eventually landfalls at Cedar Key. Weakens a lot out in the Gulf, but it probably still has excessive surge with that. Shift east from 18z, but still showing the stall and getting ripped apart in the NE gulf.


Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
BobHarlem wrote:GFS takes its sweet time west of tampa (like 24 hours) but eventually landfalls at Cedar Key
https://i.imgur.com/J6ERc03.png
Most likely a TS at that point. At least wind damage isn't a concern with this run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
That's quite a rapid weakening on 0z GFS, from 934 mb at peak (108 hrs) to 992 mb near landfall (156 hrs). That's a 58 mb rise in 48 hours!
Unfortunately, the Euro runs (which take a more S path) typically have Ian intensify up to landfall.
Unfortunately, the Euro runs (which take a more S path) typically have Ian intensify up to landfall.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
So it looks like the GFS takes it a little further west than the euro and crosses the western tip of Cuba where the euro is a bit further east as it crosses Cuba. Which if that’s the case it makes sense if the GFS solution misses the trough and meanders for a little bit before heading more NE. That timing and turn to the north will be a big deal in where it makes landfall in Florida.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
0z run


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Ummm.. that’s a cat 4 dropping to a TS?
Last edited by Poonwalker on Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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