ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#801 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:07 pm

Those towers are pretty cold. Curious if we get a spin down to the surface?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#802 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:08 pm

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#803 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.


30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#804 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:15 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Blown Away wrote:NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.


30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood

Which will likely flip back to 30 miles west come the next advisory or one after that.

Anyone from Big Bend to Naples should be at least be preparing.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#805 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:22 pm

Could land interaction with Cuba widen Ian’s wind field?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#806 Postby NAVAIDNICK » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:26 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Blown Away wrote:NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.


30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood


:eek: North Port is the next town NW inland from Englewood. I'm in full prep mode but it's a little reassuring to know that it's better to be in the crosshairs 4 days out than in it only 1 day out! The one thing I can be sure of is that it's going to change a few times between now and then.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#807 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:27 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Could land interaction with Cuba widen Ian’s wind field?


It does on some of the models. But they tend to over do that as well.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#808 Postby Visioen » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:39 pm

I see circulations everywhere. This will hinder development in the short term.

I should probably take my meds.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#809 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:43 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#810 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:05 pm

7 day rain estimate from SFWMD


Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#811 Postby REDHurricane » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:35 pm

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#812 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:38 pm

REDHurricane wrote:New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif


THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#813 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:30 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
REDHurricane wrote:New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif


THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.

Yeah I can’t tell if something will try to reform or if it will just yank the existing llc underneath it. Wish we had visible to better make out the low level clouds
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#814 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:31 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
REDHurricane wrote:New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif


THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.

Yeah I can’t tell if something will try to reform or if it will just yank the existing llc underneath it. Wish we had visible to better make out the low level clouds

If you look closely, you can see the LLC catching up right now. It got stripped for a little bit due to shear
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#815 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:31 am

Convection really popping now. Big difference when it was under 30kt shear this morning and 5kt shear now.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#816 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:53 am

I’d say in an hour or so the center will be under the convection and off to the races
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#817 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:58 am

Image

NHC center.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#818 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:21 am

Evening everyone
I see the post of percentages of Tropical force winds for south Florida but not for the Key Largo area , any Idea what we could be looking at?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#819 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:31 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening everyone
I see the post of percentages of Tropical force winds for south Florida but not for the Key Largo area , any Idea what we could be looking at?


According to the NHC the probability of TS force winds in Key Largo are 40-50%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#820 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:38 am

AutoPenalti wrote:You know it's game on and Aric shows up.

Now we wait for GCANE. :lol:

Like you when I first saw Aric posting here I then suddenly remembered GCANE and how I'm missing his insight, hasn't been on since June! :( Glad to see Aric back regardless.
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