ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

Those towers are pretty cold. Curious if we get a spin down to the surface?

[Blown Away]

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.

[caneseddy]

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.

30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood

[StPeteMike]

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.

30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood

Which will likely flip back to 30 miles west come the next advisory or one after that.

Anyone from Big Bend to Naples should be at least be preparing.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Could land interaction with Cuba widen Ian’s wind field?

[NAVAIDNICK]

NHC track shifted a little E near Florida.

30 mile difference...from Sarasota to Englewood

North Port is the next town NW inland from Englewood. I'm in full prep mode but it's a little reassuring to know that it's better to be in the crosshairs 4 days out than in it only 1 day out! The one thing I can be sure of is that it's going to change a few times between now and then.

[eastcoastFL]

Could land interaction with Cuba widen Ian’s wind field?

It does on some of the models. But they tend to over do that as well.

[Visioen]

I see circulations everywhere. This will hinder development in the short term.

I should probably take my meds.

[Hurricane Mike]

11:30pm Video on Ian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giO1DYahkJ4

[eastcoastFL]

7 day rain estimate from SFWMD

[REDHurricane]

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

[Aric Dunn]

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif

THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.

[cheezyWXguy]

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif

THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.

Yeah I can’t tell if something will try to reform or if it will just yank the existing llc underneath it. Wish we had visible to better make out the low level clouds

[AxaltaRacing24]

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif

THere is definitely something trying to take over under the convection. just have to wait and see if it will make it happen.

Yeah I can’t tell if something will try to reform or if it will just yank the existing llc underneath it. Wish we had visible to better make out the low level clouds

If you look closely, you can see the LLC catching up right now. It got stripped for a little bit due to shear

[eastcoastFL]

Convection really popping now. Big difference when it was under 30kt shear this morning and 5kt shear now.

[Hurricaneman]

I’d say in an hour or so the center will be under the convection and off to the races

[Keldeo1997]

NHC center.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone
I see the post of percentages of Tropical force winds for south Florida but not for the Key Largo area , any Idea what we could be looking at?

[Bocadude85]

Evening everyone
I see the post of percentages of Tropical force winds for south Florida but not for the Key Largo area , any Idea what we could be looking at?

According to the NHC the probability of TS force winds in Key Largo are 40-50%.

[Cyclenall]

You know it's game on and Aric shows up.

Now we wait for GCANE.

Like you when I first saw Aric posting here I then suddenly remembered GCANE and how I'm missing his insight, hasn't been on since June! Glad to see Aric back regardless.