ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.

[pgoss11]

Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

[Hurricaneman]

Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation

[Iceresistance]

45 knot FL winds.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA2-0309A-IAN_zoom.png

[pgoss11]

Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN













MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation

[pgoss11]

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation

Do center reformations ever show up on modeling?

[redingtonbeach]

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.

So you are thinking a tick north of the Euro ensembles? Cat 1-2 at landfall, if that??

[cane5]

One thing we ARE confident in is that the jet stream will be digging south across the Gulf this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail across the NW and north-central Gulf. This will steer Ian to Florida. Possibly as far west as the northern Peninsula or eastern Panhandle. May not be much of a hurricane in that shear, though.

So if anything if you are including the Panhandle based upon the models that say otherwise they would tend to shift West away from the Peninsula ?

Away from the southern peninsula, anyway. Eastern panhandle/northern peninsula. May not be a hurricane up there. May not exit Florida but dissipate in Georgia.[/quote

Very good waxman thanks for your response.

[hohnywx]

Just adjusting to the center relocation

Do center reformations ever show up on modeling?

Don't throw out the 0z Euro's forecast track run out the window, it picked up nicely the reformation further south and west this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/xQJUlro.jpg

[NDG]

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.

Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.

[aspen]

I’m a little concerned about the forecasted shear for Ian. I just can’t not think about how Michael, coming from a similar spot and taking a similar path, was able to get in just the right place to not be sheared to death, and we all know how that ended up. Some models runs like the 06z HMON also show Ian still maintaining MH intensity into Florida, with the shear unable to drastically weaken it before landfall. How sure are we that Ian’s Gulf shear will indeed be unfavorable?

[Blown Away]

Ft Myers N to Tampa and N of Cedar Key to Apalachicola always very very low odds of a direct hurricane landfall historically. Majority of W FL coast canes come in between Ft Myers and Keys and a very small slot @Cedar Key.

It might be Tampa’s time, hopefully not.

[gatorcane]

Ft Myers N to Tampa and N of Cedar Key to Apalachicola always very very low odds of a direct hurricane landfall historically. Majority of W FL coast canes come in between Ft Myers and Keys and a very small slot @Cedar Key.

It might be Tampa’s time, hopefully not.

Last time Tampa saw a major was October 25, 1921. Rare they get it hit seems despite being on the Gulf coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

[robbielyn]

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.

Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.

If it’s comma shaped, i doubt it will be a major or a hurricane. We always get a sheared mess in the gulf and gfs, with ian’s llc forming south of track, says ts at landfall appalach 992 mb. this is sept. i’m sure he will go further north and west with time. this is a very fluid situation. euro was not locked as another met said.

[Iceresistance]

Recon is heading into the deeper convection, it seems like that the LLC they found earlier may be a goner. The pressure is lower though.

[pgoss11]

Recon is heading into the deeper convection, it seems like that the LLC they found earlier may be a goner. The pressure is lower though.

Wow! This storm is just crazy to track. So many changes until it gets organized I think everything is still on the table.

[gatorcane]

Track of the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa area. It made landfall in Tarpon Springs (Pinellas County) as a major on Oct 25, 1921:

[Jr0d]

I’m a little concerned about the forecasted shear for Ian. I just can’t not think about how Michael, coming from a similar spot and taking a similar path, was able to get in just the right place to not be sheared to death, and we all know how that ended up. Some models runs like the 06z HMON also show Ian still maintaining MH intensity into Florida, with the shear unable to drastically weaken it before landfall. How sure are we that Ian’s Gulf shear will indeed be unfavorable?

Charlie as well. Instead of being sheared it turned east earlier than expected and intensified.

Despite being a month later, Ian does have some similarities to Charlie.

[Iceresistance]

Why did you turn south when you could turn north to sample the strong convection? Maybe the lightning has something to do with it?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA2-0309A-IAN.png

[Ivanhater]

Umm. Are they really getting North winds that far south??