ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#881 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:52 am

I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.
4 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#882 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:53 am

cycloneye wrote:Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#883 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:54 am

pgoss11 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation
1 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#884 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:54 am

1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#885 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:56 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Officially more south. It was at 14.7N at 5 AM.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN













MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation
1 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#886 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:57 am

pgoss11 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:Moving WSW at 15 mph? Was that expected?

Just adjusting to the center relocation

Do center reformations ever show up on modeling?
1 likes   

redingtonbeach
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:05 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#887 Postby redingtonbeach » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:57 am

wxman57 wrote:I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.


So you are thinking a tick north of the Euro ensembles? Cat 1-2 at landfall, if that??
1 likes   

cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#888 Postby cane5 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:57 am

wxman57 wrote:
cane5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:One thing we ARE confident in is that the jet stream will be digging south across the Gulf this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail across the NW and north-central Gulf. This will steer Ian to Florida. Possibly as far west as the northern Peninsula or eastern Panhandle. May not be much of a hurricane in that shear, though.


So if anything if you are including the Panhandle based upon the models that say otherwise they would tend to shift West away from the Peninsula ?


Away from the southern peninsula, anyway. Eastern panhandle/northern peninsula. May not be a hurricane up there. May not exit Florida but dissipate in Georgia.[/quote

Very good waxman thanks for your response.
1 likes   

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#889 Postby hohnywx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:58 am

pgoss11 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Just adjusting to the center relocation

Do center reformations ever show up on modeling?


NDG wrote:Don't throw out the 0z Euro's forecast track run out the window, it picked up nicely the reformation further south and west this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/xQJUlro.jpg
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#890 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:03 am

wxman57 wrote:I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.


Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#891 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:18 am

I’m a little concerned about the forecasted shear for Ian. I just can’t not think about how Michael, coming from a similar spot and taking a similar path, was able to get in just the right place to not be sheared to death, and we all know how that ended up. Some models runs like the 06z HMON also show Ian still maintaining MH intensity into Florida, with the shear unable to drastically weaken it before landfall. How sure are we that Ian’s Gulf shear will indeed be unfavorable?
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#892 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:25 am

Ft Myers N to Tampa and N of Cedar Key to Apalachicola always very very low odds of a direct hurricane landfall historically. Majority of W FL coast canes come in between Ft Myers and Keys and a very small slot @Cedar Key.

It might be Tampa’s time, hopefully not.
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#893 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:27 am

Blown Away wrote:Ft Myers N to Tampa and N of Cedar Key to Apalachicola always very very low odds of a direct hurricane landfall historically. Majority of W FL coast canes come in between Ft Myers and Keys and a very small slot @Cedar Key.

It might be Tampa’s time, hopefully not.


Last time Tampa saw a major was October 25, 1921. Rare they get it hit seems despite being on the Gulf coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:34 am, edited 3 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#894 Postby robbielyn » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:32 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I have it inland near Tampa then northward, passing west of Jacksonville and into Georgia, where it dissipates. May be a comma-shaped storm in the Gulf with all that westerly shear.


Wow, you are going against low odds of a MH making landfall near Tampa, probably around 1 in a 100 chance of happening every year, but it has been so long that your forecast may indeed be correct. Unfortunately this may be the year.


If it’s comma shaped, i doubt it will be a major or a hurricane. We always get a sheared mess in the gulf and gfs, with ian’s llc forming south of track, says ts at landfall appalach 992 mb. this is sept. i’m sure he will go further north and west with time. this is a very fluid situation. euro was not locked as another met said.
2 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#895 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:32 am

Recon is heading into the deeper convection, it seems like that the LLC they found earlier may be a goner. The pressure is lower though.
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#896 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:34 am

Iceresistance wrote:Recon is heading into the deeper convection, it seems like that the LLC they found earlier may be a goner. The pressure is lower though.

Wow! This storm is just crazy to track. So many changes until it gets organized I think everything is still on the table.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#897 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:36 am

Track of the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa area. It made landfall in Tarpon Springs (Pinellas County) as a major on Oct 25, 1921:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
5 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#898 Postby Jr0d » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:36 am

aspen wrote:I’m a little concerned about the forecasted shear for Ian. I just can’t not think about how Michael, coming from a similar spot and taking a similar path, was able to get in just the right place to not be sheared to death, and we all know how that ended up. Some models runs like the 06z HMON also show Ian still maintaining MH intensity into Florida, with the shear unable to drastically weaken it before landfall. How sure are we that Ian’s Gulf shear will indeed be unfavorable?


Charlie as well. Instead of being sheared it turned east earlier than expected and intensified.

Despite being a month later, Ian does have some similarities to Charlie.
4 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#899 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:41 am

Why did you turn south when you could turn north to sample the strong convection? Maybe the lightning has something to do with it?

Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA2-0309A-IAN.png
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#900 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:43 am

Umm. Are they really getting North winds that far south??
3 likes   
Michael


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests