ATL: IAN - Models

[Nimbus]

HWRF/HMON both show a peak in the low to mid 930s in the southern Gulf late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

The Euro had a 1022 mb high a little further southwest in yesterdays 12Z run at the start this run the high is initialized over Virginia.

[gatorcane]

Euro 24 hour trend:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Everyone clutching every Magic 8 ball, rabbits foot and Ouija board today for these model runs lol

I prefer burning some white sage, but to each his own

[OuterBanker]

I would think the 12z Euro starts to fold to the GFS. 06z ensembles started showing tracks matching GFS so we will see. Something has to give today as this is getting ridiculous.

This is getting ridiculous, but that doesn’t mean the euro has to fold. Euro is better at picking up patterns more than gfs. Gfs has been widely inconsistent, whereas Euro has been consistent on a peninsula hit. Guess we will see

It isnt just GFS. CMC aswell, only outlier seems to be UKMET and whatever EURO does

If the UKMET and Euro agree why would they be the outliers?

If the Euro has been more consistent would not the GFS and CMC be the outliers?

[capepoint]

The trends on the GFS are interesting, but I'm not sold on it by any means. It's being very inconsistent, shifting as much as 100+ miles west each run. The Euro, thus far, has been very consistent with its solution. If the 12z Euro comes in significantly further north (into the Panhandle), I will be much more inclined to believe the GFS.

And if the European stays with the same general solution as it has been showing for the past 4 days, and it verifies, the GFS will be regulated down to the same reputation level as the Nogaps in Tropical forecasting lol.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF/HMON both show a peak in the low to mid 930s in the southern Gulf late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Gfs was showing 934mb around the same location before rapidly falling apart on approach

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This is getting ridiculous, but that doesn’t mean the euro has to fold. Euro is better at picking up patterns more than gfs. Gfs has been widely inconsistent, whereas Euro has been consistent on a peninsula hit. Guess we will see

It isnt just GFS. CMC aswell, only outlier seems to be UKMET and whatever EURO does

If the UKMET and Euro agree why would they be the outliers?

If the Euro has been more consistent would not the GFS and CMC be the outliers?

I am writing under the assumption its gonna jog west. Perhaps you are right

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 24 slightly SW of 6Z at 30

[gatorcane]

EURO 48 hours:

[AJC3]

Quick reminder here as the 12Z ECM comes in...

The mods and admins are watching this thread closely. Back and forth posts that turn into confrontational "team west" vs "team east" subthreads, or declaration of some sort of model being "victorious", especially several days before the event unfolds, will very likely be zapped. As Stacy Stewart once said, model agreement doesn't nescassarily translate into model accuracy.

Yes, we all understand model guidance has improved since 2004, and every synoptic scenario is unique. We get that. Still, this was only about 36 hours from its eventual landfall, so it's good to keep this in the back of your mind before posting.

HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE
TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT.
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
IT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXISTS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.6N 79.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND

[LarryWx]

EURO 48 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/hv05pch4/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-3.png

12Z Euro 48 only very slightly SW of 6Z run at 54

[Ivanhater]

12Z Hmon and Hwrf joining the Gfs and Cmc camp coming in around Panama city

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 72 hours. Looks like it is staying east and not shifting west

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro 72 hours. Looks like it is staying east and not shifting west

https://i.postimg.cc/8CJk3nRg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

Slighhhtly W of the 00Z run - but stronger

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 hours. Looks like it is staying east and not shifting west

https://i.postimg.cc/8CJk3nRg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

This 12 Euro 72 is barely NW of 6Z at 78. Essentially the same location.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF Ut oh west coast of Florida

[chris_fit]

Where to now? What are your guesses? I'm thinking Just N of Tampa Bay

[toad strangler]

Someone please post 12z Euro 500mb

[chris_fit]

[tolakram]

Best EC-Fast has