ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

That is very close to no landfall near Tampa, very very close.

[AJC3]

12Z Euro Def trending W after it kisses Tampa though.... I think that's a big change

https://i.imgur.com/LEyWk4d.gif

The post-landfall motion looks Irma-esque.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

JMA like the Euro also. So it is the Euro/UKMET/JMA vs the GFS/HWRF/CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/bJ8yJ0DZ/jma-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-192.gif

Thats more Bradenton landfall

[tolakram]

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092412/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-1400z.html

[NDG]

It will all come down to how fast and deep the trough digs down to pull Ian north, the difference between the Euro and GFS.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro Def trending W after it kisses Tampa though.... I think that's a big change

Definitely could be the start of a westward trend. Ensemble spread for 12z might begin to show it...let's see.

[otowntiger]

12Z Euro did shift North just north of Tampa.

TVCN will almost certainly shift West again and in turn the NHC track.

New TVCN comes in about 30 min.

. You are very likely correct. I also believe that we are still far enough out and there are still enough variables to get worked out and factored in that we could very well see everything shift back east. It’s why we can’t take every shift one way or the other too seriously at this point. But what we are seeing is proof that a wide swath of real estate along the gulf coast that needs to stay very vigilant. That is all of Florida including the Keys, Alabama and Mississippi.

[dizzyfish]

https://i.imgur.com/6hkAumj.gif

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092412/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-1400z.html

Oh yikes! That takes out Pinellas county and the coastline in Pasco, Hernando and up through Citrus county. I'm 3 miles inland in Pasco.

[AtlanticWind]

Still would hold off on saying where Ian will come ashore until its center consaldates .
Small differences could change the models considerably I think.

[Blown Away]

Euro continues to keep stall in the 6+ day range for days and has not progressed into the close range. 12z GFS generally dropped the stall. If Euro is going to cave W it will likely begin to show it in 00z.

12z Euro shows a very rare major track into just N of Tampa and GFS track into Panhandle much more common.

I wonder if we will see Ian move slower than projected in the near term and result in more progressive movement later?

[Category5Kaiju]

A question I personally have is this: what exactly would the difference in ridging/troughing position and strength have to be for a recurving storm from the WCAR to strike the Panhandle/Mississippi/Alabama region, versus the West Coast of Florida's peninsula?

[cycloneye]

This will be good news for the model huggers as the gulfstream jet gonzo is flying now. The data from it will be incorporated to the models at 00z.

[Frank P]

That’s a significant shift west by the 12z Euro but most especially after it makes landfall. A slower moving system would allow that shift to occur over the GOM and make the landfall more near the eastern Panhandle. Additionally it spares S FL from the brunt of the system. Quite a change IMO. Foreword motions of the system will play an important part in the ultimate landfall. Faster system more towards the west coast, shower system the Panhandle. Just yesterday it was hitting the up the Atlantic east coast after a FL landfall… that scenario is now gone it appears att

[Emmett_Brown]

It will all come down to how fast and deep the trough digs down to pull Ian north, the difference between the Euro and GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/8d7ASRf.jpg

The trough looks very similar on the Euro and GFS to me. For example, both have the 582 line running through N Carolina by 12Z Wed. The major differences between these 500 mb charts is the location of Ian. So how Ian tracks in the next 72 hours would seem to be very important.

[AJC3]

A question I personally have is this: what exactly would the difference in ridging/troughing position and strength have to be for a recurving storm from the WCAR to strike the Panhandle/Mississippi/Alabama region, versus the West Coast of Florida's peninsula?

Once a mid level trough lifts out, the mean layer SW-NE flow steering weakens or collapses. Post-frontal ridging, both surface and aloft, will then build in behind the trough, which is usually accompanied by less favorable environmental conditions (increased upper level shear and a drier/cooler mean air mass). Low level winds shift to N and eventually NE-E (think of fall cold fronts in FL), while winds aloft back to W or NW. If Ian were to miss the trough and move farther N-W, it's much more likely to do so as a much-weakened system.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://i.imgur.com/6hkAumj.gif

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092412/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-1400z.html

Something is really bothering me about this Run, Primarily that Cuba appears to have no effect on it


Also the angle compared to GFS....GFS shows 100 miles to the west on first frame. These Tracks are entirely dependant on positioning below cuba. We will have to wait and see when that turn happens

Dunno. Watching with anxiety.

[jlauderdal]

This will be good news for the model huggers as the gulfstream jet gonzo is flying now. The data from it will be incorporated to the models at 00z.

Helpful but until we get a proper center, modeling will be suspect.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/6hkAumj.gif

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092412/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-1400z.html

Something is really bothering me about this Run, Primarily that Cuba appears to have no effect on it

Western cuba typically has minimal effects on intensity. Plenty of fuel available in that area, relatively flat.

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/6hkAumj.gif

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092412/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-1400z.html

Something is really bothering me about this Run, Primarily that Cuba appears to have no effect on it

It won't, as was the case with Charley. I've flown over western Cuba at 1000 feet...it's narrow, flat, and consists of farmland which turns into mangroves near the tip.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/resea ... 2_2000.pdf

[cycloneye]

This will be good news for the model huggers as the gulfstream jet gonzo is flying now. The data from it will be incorporated to the models at 00z.

Helpful but until we get a proper center, modeling will be suspect.

That is correct.