ATL: IAN - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1981 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:12 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1982 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:14 pm

Around Seaside
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1983 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:14 pm


Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1984 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:15 pm

Almost identical track as 12z GFS. Doesn't weaken as much at landfall near Destin FL. GFS gets this down to 931 mb in the Central GOM!!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1985 Postby hohnywx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:16 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


It's not. If anything it is east of 12z.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1986 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:18 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


No, it's about 40-50 miles east (right) of the 12z
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1987 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:18 pm

GFS Euro comparison at 500mb

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1988 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:20 pm

trend
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1989 Postby pcolaman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:20 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


Was about 20 to 25 miles to the east
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1990 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:22 pm

pcolaman wrote:
otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


Was about 20 to 25 miles to the east


Also initialized about 50miles too far south which makes the whole run questionable
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1991 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:24 pm

Great 500 mb model comparison between GFS and Euro Mark. Really shows the difference between the 2 models. Additionally, GFS much stronger than Euro...not sure if that makes a difference too. I think GFS just lifts the trough out quicker than Euro which allows high pressure to expand east of the peninsula keeping Ian on a more N-NW path and then north.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1992 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:32 pm

West to Destin or further, or east to the Big Bend I am hoping for. I have no interest in going through the eyewall of a Cat 3 or higher again.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1993 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:33 pm

Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1994 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr6QsTsf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-102.gif


12z had next to none going that way, so that is interesting. But it's still not a lot of them.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1995 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:41 pm

I have a feeling they might tick back east when they get ran with the correct center fix
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1996 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:43 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr6QsTsf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-102.gif


12z had next to none going that way, so that is interesting. But it's still not a lot of them.


The GFS OP is with the western cluster which does have more ensembles.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1997 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:43 pm

Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1998 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:46 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1999 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:49 pm

Abdullah wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?


https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weath ... na&lang=en

18z CMC:
Image

This is the 12z run at the same forecast time in that format just for comparison. (6z/18z only goes out so far like the euro/icon):
Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2000 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:50 pm

Abdullah wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?


Meteocentre's page
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