ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1981 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:12 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1982 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:14 pm

Around Seaside
Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1983 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:14 pm


Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1984 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:15 pm

Almost identical track as 12z GFS. Doesn't weaken as much at landfall near Destin FL. GFS gets this down to 931 mb in the Central GOM!!
0 likes   

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1985 Postby hohnywx » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:16 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


It's not. If anything it is east of 12z.
3 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1986 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:18 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


No, it's about 40-50 miles east (right) of the 12z
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1987 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:18 pm

GFS Euro comparison at 500mb

Image

Image
5 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1988 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:20 pm

trend
Image
4 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1989 Postby pcolaman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:20 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


Was about 20 to 25 miles to the east
2 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1990 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:22 pm

pcolaman wrote:
otowntiger wrote:

Is that even further left? The westward March continues. Crazy.


Was about 20 to 25 miles to the east


Also initialized about 50miles too far south which makes the whole run questionable
2 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1991 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:24 pm

Great 500 mb model comparison between GFS and Euro Mark. Really shows the difference between the 2 models. Additionally, GFS much stronger than Euro...not sure if that makes a difference too. I think GFS just lifts the trough out quicker than Euro which allows high pressure to expand east of the peninsula keeping Ian on a more N-NW path and then north.
6 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3385
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1992 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:32 pm

West to Destin or further, or east to the Big Bend I am hoping for. I have no interest in going through the eyewall of a Cat 3 or higher again.
2 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1993 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:33 pm

Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
3 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1994 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr6QsTsf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-102.gif


12z had next to none going that way, so that is interesting. But it's still not a lot of them.
1 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1995 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:41 pm

I have a feeling they might tick back east when they get ran with the correct center fix
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1996 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:43 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track: :eek:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr6QsTsf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-102.gif


12z had next to none going that way, so that is interesting. But it's still not a lot of them.


The GFS OP is with the western cluster which does have more ensembles.
1 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1997 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:43 pm

Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z
2 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

Abdullah
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 379
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Miramar, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1998 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:46 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?
1 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#1999 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:49 pm

Abdullah wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?


https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weath ... na&lang=en

18z CMC:
Image

This is the 12z run at the same forecast time in that format just for comparison. (6z/18z only goes out so far like the euro/icon):
Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
3 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2000 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:50 pm

Abdullah wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z


Where can we access it?


Meteocentre's page
3 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests