Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
What website is this from? Thank you
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Ivanhater wrote:Ian is pretty far south of the official track and so far on the southern edge of model guidance. We will see if that continues.
jlauderdal wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Ian is pretty far south of the official track and so far on the southern edge of model guidance. We will see if that continues.
Which center is below guidance and which center ultimately becomes dominant?
GFS out to 102 hours and now a west outlier
aspen wrote:A lot of model intensity estimates might bust very badly if Ian keeps up its poor lower-level divergence. The 00z HWRF and HMON still show rapid organization starting today, and while the HWRF’s simulated IR presentation is nearly spot-on with how Ian looks now, it certainly doesn’t seem to be rapidly organizing at the moment.
jlauderdal wrote:
The euro ensembles have been rather consistent the last few days, 50 miles on either side of Tampa is a good bet at this point. A wobble to the right or left will have a huge effect on who gets what due to the N-S orientation of the Peninsula.
RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
That's nuts that with all this talk about Florida, we are still dealing with the possibility of Ian riding up the East Coast. I thought with these Western shifts that was off the table but it doesn't seem so.
aspen wrote:If the 06z HWRF and HMON are going to verify, we’ll need to a primitive banding eyewall on microwave by this afternoon. Both develop a weak eyewall from all of Ian’s banding/popcorn convection later today, then start RI between late tonight and tomorrow morning, and get down into the 930s in the very southern Gulf. HMON is just shy of Cat 5 intensity, and actually showed a Cat 5 last run.
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