ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2201 Postby AerospaceEng » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:56 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
Image

What website is this from? Thank you
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2202 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:00 am

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and so far on the southern edge of model guidance. We will see if that continues.
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ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2203 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:01 am

The EURO shows this becoming a major hurricane, but not right away. 24 hrs from now it's still getting it's act together. That seems much more likely given how disorganized it is right now.

The GFS has this thing taking off immediately and being on it's way to Category 2 status 24 hrs from now. I'm skeptical of that.

Thus, I'm leaning towards the EURO model, atleast short term.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2204 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:03 am

Ivanhater wrote:Ian is pretty far south of the official track and so far on the southern edge of model guidance. We will see if that continues.

Which center is below guidance and which center ultimately becomes dominant?

GFS out to 102 hours and now a west outlier
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2206 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:07 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Ian is pretty far south of the official track and so far on the southern edge of model guidance. We will see if that continues.

Which center is below guidance and which center ultimately becomes dominant?

GFS out to 102 hours and now a west outlier


Good point. Ian is still a mess.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2207 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:28 am

00z EPS

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2208 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:44 am

chris_fit wrote:00z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/vcyLyfs.jpg

The euro ensembles have been rather consistent the last few days, 50 miles on either side of Tampa is a good bet at this point. A wobble to the right or left will have a huge effect on who gets what due to the N-S orientation of the Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2209 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:49 am

A lot of model intensity estimates might bust very badly if Ian keeps up its poor lower-level divergence. The 00z HWRF and HMON still show rapid organization starting today, and while the HWRF’s simulated IR presentation is nearly spot-on with how Ian looks now, it certainly doesn’t seem to be rapidly organizing at the moment.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2210 Postby otowntiger » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:57 am

aspen wrote:A lot of model intensity estimates might bust very badly if Ian keeps up its poor lower-level divergence. The 00z HWRF and HMON still show rapid organization starting today, and while the HWRF’s simulated IR presentation is nearly spot-on with how Ian looks now, it certainly doesn’t seem to be rapidly organizing at the moment.

I’ve thinking the same thing. It seems to me that Ian’s got a lot of work to do to prove these intensity forecasts right. Obviously a lot can change in a short time but time is getting short.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2211 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:02 am

jlauderdal wrote:
chris_fit wrote:00z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/vcyLyfs.jpg

The euro ensembles have been rather consistent the last few days, 50 miles on either side of Tampa is a good bet at this point. A wobble to the right or left will have a huge effect on who gets what due to the N-S orientation of the Peninsula.



Not just the ENS. The OP too. Very very consistent. No crazy swings like the GFS.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2212 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:02 am

6z gfs, sticking as the western one. But shifted slightly east to Panama City Beach. Also noticeably goes over Western Cuba this time.

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2213 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:09 am

The 06z GFS’s short-term evolution looks very reasonable. It starts off as a low 1000s TS with a similar simulated IR presentation as it currently has, then it takes all day to get organized, before finally starting RI in about 18 hours or so. That gives it 24-36 hours over water before making landfall in western Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2214 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:13 am

chris_fit wrote:00z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/vcyLyfs.jpg


That's nuts that with all this talk about Florida, we are still dealing with the possibility of Ian riding up the East Coast. I thought with these Western shifts that was off the table but it doesn't seem so.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2215 Postby stormchazer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:32 am

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:00z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/vcyLyfs.jpg


That's nuts that with all this talk about Florida, we are still dealing with the possibility of Ian riding up the East Coast. I thought with these Western shifts that was off the table but it doesn't seem so.


I think the Florida talk is due to the immediacy but yes the East Coast should be watching.

Seems the NHC is hedging its bets a bit this morning not moving the projected path a bit more east. The continuing GFS vs Euro competition goes on. I have my faith in NHC but Euro has been doggedly consistent.
Last edited by stormchazer on Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2216 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:39 am

Image

6z icon Shifted left a bit from 0z, but gets Tampa/St.Pete in the eyewall and rides the west coast of Florida up to Cedar Key.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2217 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:47 am

If the 06z HWRF and HMON are going to verify, we’ll need to a primitive banding eyewall on microwave by this afternoon. Both develop a weak eyewall from all of Ian’s banding/popcorn convection later today, then start RI between late tonight and tomorrow morning, and get down into the 930s in the very southern Gulf. HMON is just shy of Cat 5 intensity, and actually showed a Cat 5 last run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2218 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:55 am

aspen wrote:If the 06z HWRF and HMON are going to verify, we’ll need to a primitive banding eyewall on microwave by this afternoon. Both develop a weak eyewall from all of Ian’s banding/popcorn convection later today, then start RI between late tonight and tomorrow morning, and get down into the 930s in the very southern Gulf. HMON is just shy of Cat 5 intensity, and actually showed a Cat 5 last run.

I had a fun read looking over the Wilma thread and the RI last night. If Ian can get convection and keep this morning and into the afternoon, we could see another Wilma-like RI. Conditions today and tomorrow are pretty similar to when Wilma exploded.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2219 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2220 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:04 am

model spread graphic from Tomer

Image
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