ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Visioen]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

I think waxman is spot on this time, makes a lot of sense.

[toad strangler]

Chances rising for a peninsula hit over panhandle. Question is where? wxman57’s comment about the farther south on the peninsula the stronger the storm is a bit disconcerting.

I also wonder now if the chance of a crossing the peninsula and riding the east coast possibility is getting better as well?

[StPeteMike]

Chances rising for a peninsula hit over panhandle. Question is where? wxman57’s comment about the farther south on the peninsula the stronger the storm is a bit disconcerting.

I also wonder now if the chance of a crossing the peninsula and riding the east coast possibility is getting better as well?

Seems like the models that aim towards the peninsula also make a more north turn once it gets to the coast or just inland. How drastic of a turn I can’t really answer. Think this will go up into S Georgia and then the Carolinas, but all inland.

[BobHarlem]

Chances rising for a peninsula hit over panhandle. Question is where? wxman57’s comment about the farther south on the peninsula the stronger the storm is a bit disconcerting.

I also wonder now if the chance of a crossing the peninsula and riding the east coast possibility is getting better as well?

Seems like the models that aim towards the peninsula also make a more north turn once it gets to the coast or just inland. How drastic of a turn I can’t really answer. Think this will go up into S Georgia and then the Carolinas, but all inland.

Just offshore coast raker then in around Cedar Key is what I think at the moment (Will probably change... not a forecast)

[shannalynn35]

Good morning everyone! I have been watching closely and live in the Tampa Bay Area just 20 minutes south of St. Pete in Bradenton and the Euro is giving me major anxiety I’m born and raised here so I’ve had my share of TS and Hurricanes but nothing with a direct landfall, being a newbie to this group can someone explain why the Euro stays so consistent with staying more east and eyeing the Tampa Bay Area? Sorry for my lack of knowledge!!

[ColdMiser123]

Ian has made the turn NW according to the last two recon passes, looks a tad NW of where the 12 hour 0z Euro forecast placed the low center. Models much closer now to where the low center currently is.

[StPeteMike]

Good morning everyone! I have been watching closely and live in the Tampa Bay Area just 20 minutes south of St. Pete in Bradenton and the Euro is giving me major anxiety I’m born and raised here so I’ve had my share of TS and Hurricanes but nothing with a direct landfall, being a newbie to this group can someone explain why the Euro stays so consistent with staying more east and eyeing the Tampa Bay Area? Sorry for my lack of knowledge!!

Includes a faster forward speed the next couple days compared to the GFS is the main reason, allowing the trough to have some influence on the direction before it pulls out and gives Ian less steering influence. GFS has it slower and totally misses the trough.

[Blown Away]

Ian has made the turn NW according to the last two recon passes, looks a tad NW of where the 12 hour 0z Euro forecast placed the low center. Models much closer now to where the low center currently is.

Can you provide a graphic or lat/long of this position? Does the NW position imply moving faster compared to 12 hr 00z?

[wxman57]

No change in 12Z consensus = no change in NHC's 15Z track. I still think it'll be east of their track around Tampa and northward. Consensus is biased too far west by GFS/HWFF.

[Nimbus]

Ian has made the turn NW according to the last two recon passes, looks a tad NW of where the 12 hour 0z Euro forecast placed the low center. Models much closer now to where the low center currently is.

Longer term Ian is about a degree south of where the models predicted at the 72 hour range.
Mid level center is near 15N -75.8W and there still could be mesovorts rotating around so at least using a 3 hour average of track direction is probably safer.

[ColdMiser123]

Ian has made the turn NW according to the last two recon passes, looks a tad NW of where the 12 hour 0z Euro forecast placed the low center. Models much closer now to where the low center currently is.

Can you provide a graphic or lat/long of this position? Does the NW position imply moving faster compared to 12 hr 00z?

I have the coordinates of the 12 hour 0z Euro forecast to be 14.8N/79.3W, compared to the 8 am/12z NHC position of 15.0N/79.4W. Any kind of track difference now will be related to how the models interact with the trough in the Gulf.

[BobHarlem]

No change in 12Z consensus = no change in NHC's 15Z track. I still think it'll be east of their track around Tampa and northward. Consensus is biased too far west by GFS/HWFF.

Would they manually adjust it just east of the TVCN to avoid taking the cone out of Ft. Myers? With the Euro's persistence I'd think about doing that. Is it going to be close enough to St Pete/Tampa to cause a bunch of issues even if landfall is north of there?

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574007922601988096

[Tailgater33]

Yep center at 15.1N it’ll start deepening now, Tampa home owners will likely be wishing they had a shield.
I hope the shear gets to it earlier than forecast

[Weatherboy1]

While Ian still doesn’t have a central core of intense convection, the overall satellite presentation is very impressive. Lots of banding, etc.

[REDHurricane]

Looks like rotation is beginning to consolidate somewhere around 15-15.5ºN, 79.5ºW



Vorticity is starting to fully stack up as well





The setup is all there for RI right now, let's see if Ian will really ramp up soon as expected. Will this be a relatively simple situation where more intense storm = more NE track, or does the interaction with the trough further complicate things?

[caneman]

No change in 12Z consensus = no change in NHC's 15Z track. I still think it'll be east of their track around Tampa and northward. Consensus is biased too far west by GFS/HWFF.

Agree I would hope they'd move it East some so as not to give a false sense of security. In addition, if it really does go East there would be far less time and a stronger Hurricane

Would they manually adjust it just east of the TVCN to avoid taking the cone out of Ft. Myers? With the Euro's persistence I'd think about doing that. Is it going to be close enough to St Pete/Tampa to cause a bunch of issues even if landfall is north of there?

[johngaltfla]

No change in 12Z consensus = no change in NHC's 15Z track. I still think it'll be east of their track around Tampa and northward. Consensus is biased too far west by GFS/HWFF.

If we are talking about anything in/on the Pinellas County area, the NHC and Florida government will have to act this afternoon or at a minimum early this evening. To evacuate those vulnerable coastal areas will take 2 days at a minimum.

And with a gulf storm approaching from the southwest, there is no guarantee it will weaken at landfall. It is too early in the game to tell.

[ObsessedMiami]

Would not want to be in Tampa emergency managements shoes with the uncertainty of the track vs the potential risks of waiting for clearer guidance.

[Gatos del Sol]

Just offshore coast raker then in around Cedar Key is what I think at the moment (Will probably change... not a forecast)

A Cedar Key raker could end up being pretty bad for Tampa Bay depending on the approach angle due to funneling concerns. The South Tampa peninsula area is heavily populated and very low lying. Surge/evacuation maps for Hillsborough County-

https://www.tbrpc.org/wp-content/upload ... p-Side.pdf