ATL: IAN - Models

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SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2261 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:47 am

skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2262 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:50 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend

They will go where the tvcn leads them and won't stray too far away from that...what they arent going to do is bounce around like the gfs and cmc have done for several days.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2263 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:52 am

06Z EPS - Pretty much like the 00Z, maybe a little weaker overall.

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Last edited by chris_fit on Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2264 Postby blp » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:54 am

06z Euro spread.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:04 am


Looks like alot of stallers and loopers in there.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2266 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:16 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Looks like alot of stallers and loopers in there.


Ugh. Hurricane Elena flashbacks.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2267 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:16 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend

They will go where the tvcn leads them and won't stray too far away from that...what they arent going to do is bounce around like the gfs and cmc have done for several days.


Last 6 0Z/12Z runs of Euro vs GFS, the GFS doesnt seem to be randomly bouncing around. Both have had the same amount of changes, one is simply to the east while the other is to the west.

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Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2268 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:18 am


Not a fan of that one member that comes off into the ATL then strengthens to a 957mb landfalling in Beaufort Co. :cry:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2269 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:26 am

6Z HWRF If this verified we should see 995MB from recon by this evening.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2270 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:27 am

What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2271 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:30 am

NDG wrote:What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif


Once the Euro locks onto a storm in this range like it appears to have done with Ian it can be amazingly accurate. We will see what happens but no doubt the western FL peninsula’s risk level has increased.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2272 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:39 am

gatorcane wrote:
NDG wrote:What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif


Once the Euro locks onto a storm in this range like it appears to have done with Ian it can be amazingly accurate. We will see what happens but no doubt the western FL peninsula’s risk level has increased.


NHC cone is still in the big bend so best to avoid speculations, and here is also last year's verification. Euro does significantly worse than the GFS in the 48-96 hr period where we are right now.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2273 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:41 am

Image
Past 4 GFS runs noticed the connection to the trough is happening farther SE w/ each run and injecting it NE faster. Seems the model picking up on a sharper trough past 4 runs?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2274 Postby crimi481 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:50 am

Fiona's tail has been disrupting Ian. Amazing
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2275 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:59 am

6Z UKMET hour 60 (end of run) is ~40 miles NNW of the 0Z UKMET hour 66. The 0Z UKMET had a landfall near Port Charlotte, FL.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2276 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:01 am

Trough more amplified than 6z on the 12z ICON, and this is resulting in an initial track farther northeast, landfall spot likely south of 6z this run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2277 Postby cane5 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:14 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Trough more amplified than 6z on the 12z ICON, and this is resulting in an initial track farther northeast, landfall spot likely south of 6z this run.


Wow that’s completely not showing in the models ?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2278 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:19 am

12z icon, right of 6z by a good amount (6z was north of tampa at Cedar Key, but rode the coast)

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Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2279 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:20 am

12z ICON

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2280 Postby ncapps » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:21 am

Is the NAM even worth talking about? It's track has shifted quite a bit to the EURO fwiw.
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