ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2261 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:47 am

skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend
1 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2262 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:50 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend

They will go where the tvcn leads them and won't stray too far away from that...what they arent going to do is bounce around like the gfs and cmc have done for several days.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2263 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:52 am

06Z EPS - Pretty much like the 00Z, maybe a little weaker overall.

Image
Last edited by chris_fit on Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2264 Postby blp » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:54 am

06z Euro spread.

Image
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:04 am


Looks like alot of stallers and loopers in there.
4 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:
Contact johngaltfla

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2266 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:16 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Looks like alot of stallers and loopers in there.


Ugh. Hurricane Elena flashbacks.
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2267 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:16 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Looks like only UKMET and ECMWF are the east based outliers for now

https://i.imgur.com/iPvkjVv.png



Nhc probably gonna stay with its panhandle/big bend

They will go where the tvcn leads them and won't stray too far away from that...what they arent going to do is bounce around like the gfs and cmc have done for several days.


Last 6 0Z/12Z runs of Euro vs GFS, the GFS doesnt seem to be randomly bouncing around. Both have had the same amount of changes, one is simply to the east while the other is to the west.

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2268 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:18 am


Not a fan of that one member that comes off into the ATL then strengthens to a 957mb landfalling in Beaufort Co. :cry:
6 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2269 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:26 am

6Z HWRF If this verified we should see 995MB from recon by this evening.

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2270 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:27 am

What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

Image
Image
8 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2271 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:30 am

NDG wrote:What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif


Once the Euro locks onto a storm in this range like it appears to have done with Ian it can be amazingly accurate. We will see what happens but no doubt the western FL peninsula’s risk level has increased.
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2272 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:39 am

gatorcane wrote:
NDG wrote:What I don't see anybody mention that in the short term, 72 hrs, last 4 runs the GFS has been trending to the right closer to the Euro little by little, while the Euro has been pretty much locked on the same track, if anything sped up landfall time.

https://i.imgur.com/mvw3WLO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Jlhg7KS.gif


Once the Euro locks onto a storm in this range like it appears to have done with Ian it can be amazingly accurate. We will see what happens but no doubt the western FL peninsula’s risk level has increased.


NHC cone is still in the big bend so best to avoid speculations, and here is also last year's verification. Euro does significantly worse than the GFS in the 48-96 hr period where we are right now.

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2273 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:41 am

Image
Past 4 GFS runs noticed the connection to the trough is happening farther SE w/ each run and injecting it NE faster. Seems the model picking up on a sharper trough past 4 runs?
4 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2274 Postby crimi481 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:50 am

Fiona's tail has been disrupting Ian. Amazing
2 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6308
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2275 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:59 am

6Z UKMET hour 60 (end of run) is ~40 miles NNW of the 0Z UKMET hour 66. The 0Z UKMET had a landfall near Port Charlotte, FL.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2276 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:01 am

Trough more amplified than 6z on the 12z ICON, and this is resulting in an initial track farther northeast, landfall spot likely south of 6z this run.
5 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Top
cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2277 Postby cane5 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:14 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Trough more amplified than 6z on the 12z ICON, and this is resulting in an initial track farther northeast, landfall spot likely south of 6z this run.


Wow that’s completely not showing in the models ?
0 likes   
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2110
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2278 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:19 am

12z icon, right of 6z by a good amount (6z was north of tampa at Cedar Key, but rode the coast)

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2279 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:20 am

12z ICON

Image
2 likes   
Top
ncapps
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:53 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2280 Postby ncapps » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:21 am

Is the NAM even worth talking about? It's track has shifted quite a bit to the EURO fwiw.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests