ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

11am 15.2/79.8, LLC looks like takeoff should begin.

[cheezyWXguy]

There is a new convective burst over the center, looks to be fully aligned now, let the games begin

The fact that it’s finally producing convection over its center again is a sign that it’s probably starting to put itself together, but it’ll likely take its time today. All it’ll take is one big burst and this board will completely flip its tune

[ATCcane]

It's pretty evident from the latest sat loop that Ian is starting to spool up now. I'd expect steady strengthening going forward.

[Jr0d]

No watches yet fir the Florida Keys. I expect tropical storm watches for us at 5pm, perhaps a hurricane watch if the next model runs trend right.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In terms of convection it's a little bare, but the structure is certainly there.

[aspen]

It’s very hard to write off RI when pretty much everything in the WCar after Nana has undergone extreme phases of RI. Even Gamma and Bonnie rapidly intensified/organized despite having very little time to do so. Also, just look at what happened in the WPac. Noru went from a sheared tropical storm to a pinhole Cat 5 in just 24 hours. Storms in these super favorable environments can suddenly bomb out once all the pieces are in place, even if they’ve struggled leading up to their RI phases and never looked like they’d ever become that strong. Also, if Ian doesn’t make landfall in Cuba, that gives it another day for uninterrupted intensification. With that said, if it’s still a disorganized TS in another 24 hours, then the ceiling will be a lot lower.

[Iceresistance]

It's possible that Ian was organizing the structure before starting to produce the intense convection, which is why the structure is good, but the convection is anemic.

[aspen]

In terms of convection it's a little bare, but the structure is certainly there.

https://i.imgur.com/UyqVgVm.jpg

Reminds me of Marco ‘20, which had so much convection popping to the north and competed with its pretty bare center. They’re in the same location too.

[Poonwalker]

One of the biggest model improvements they made, and it’s something they have been focussed feverishly on for years, is predicting RI. We have all seen recon in the past leave a system finding lighter than expected winds and pressure and upon landing seen a storm suddenly explode. I’ll trust the NHC on this one.

[kevin]

Agreed with everyone else, the structure looks quite good right now but the convection is just weak. Once it gets going it could go really fast (remember Delta?). The question is just whether such intensification will happen in 6 hours or 36.

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure at the CoC down to 1001.9 mb per AF301 Recon.

[eastcoastFL]

[skillz305]

Looks as if Ian just started shooting NW

[Do_For_Love]

Extrapolated pressure at the CoC down to 1001.9 mb per AF301 Recon.

I guess the ramp up has begun...

[Blown Away]

Looks like NW movement beginning?

[Steve H.]

Looks as if Ian has begun to turn. Huge blowup of convection in the ne quad

[Steve H.]

Looks as if Ian has begun to turn. Huge blowup of convection in the ne quad

[sponger]

Still no agreement between GFS and Euro! Preparing for the Euro hit but I think I might need more generator gas than 60 gallons. Starting to freeze water jugs tomorrow, foods all been bought, and the garage is now ready for the outside furniture. Will be ready regardless.

[Steve H.]

Looks as if Ian has begun to turn. Huge blowup of convection in the ne quad

[eastcoastFL]

No shear, no dry air, hot SST’s- once this gets stacked it’s all systems go

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/t ... eFinal.gif