#1386 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:12 am
It’s very hard to write off RI when pretty much everything in the WCar after Nana has undergone extreme phases of RI. Even Gamma and Bonnie rapidly intensified/organized despite having very little time to do so. Also, just look at what happened in the WPac. Noru went from a sheared tropical storm to a pinhole Cat 5 in just 24 hours. Storms in these super favorable environments can suddenly bomb out once all the pieces are in place, even if they’ve struggled leading up to their RI phases and never looked like they’d ever become that strong. Also, if Ian doesn’t make landfall in Cuba, that gives it another day for uninterrupted intensification. With that said, if it’s still a disorganized TS in another 24 hours, then the ceiling will be a lot lower.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.