ATL: IAN - Models

[AJC3]

Recon found the position maybe half a degree east of the 18Z GFS 6 hour forecast position but GFS was forecasting 1000 mb and recon found 989. See what that does in the next model run.
Edit to add:

Does anyone have the “Beta and Advection Models” BAMD BAMM BAMS?
Deeper storm may track differently south of Cuba?

Those were replaced by TAB(S,M and D) guidance several years ago. TAB stands for Trajectory And Beta.

[Teban54]

Trend, which will be very similar to the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/umYtu18.gif

I remember wxman57 mentioned recently that HWRF is based on GFS? That would explain the trend.

[Nimbus]

Recon found the position maybe half a degree east of the 18Z GFS 6 hour forecast position but GFS was forecasting 1000 mb and recon found 989. See what that does in the next model run.
Edit to add:

Does anyone have the “Beta and Advection Models” BAMD BAMM BAMS?
Deeper storm may track differently south of Cuba?

Those were replaced by TAB(S,M and D) guidance several years ago. TAB stands for Trajectory And Beta.

Thanks, I found them and for this run all three track north near the isle of youth.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

HWRF has trended 2 degrees or @120 miles E over past 2 runs.

[utweather]

Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel is live at Clearwater Beach, Florida. There is your most reliable model.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1574156450712227842

[tolakram]

[StPeteMike]

HWRF stepping in and taking over GFS’ spot for outlier I see…

[Nimbus]

HWRF has trended 2 degrees or @120 miles E over past 2 runs.

That was expected for both the GFS and HWRF but why is the HWRF starting to weave back NNW again at 93 hours rather than follow the NHC official track?

[aspen]

The 18z HWRF is actually under-initializing Ian, showing a 999 mbar storm with no eyewall at this time and not getting close to its current pressure and structure until 09z tomorrow morning. This run still gets a 950s major by the time it hits Cuba.

[AJC3]

Quick reminder, gang. We won't have time to be moving any posts from here that should be posted in the discussion thread.

If you see one or more of your posts disappear from here, it's been deemed OT for the model thread, so just repost it over there. Thanks.

[tolakram]

Barely moving north and weakening.

[MJGarrison]

18Z Euro is a little faster and 4 mb stronger through 30 hours.
Further west but quite a bit stronger, by 16 mb at 72 hours


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[MJGarrison]

Initialized MSLP at 1003 MB


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[NDG]

18z Euro stronger, a more left track so far, looks like will go north of Tampa Bay.

[MJGarrison]

18Z Euro stays off shore during its 90 hour run. This is at 81 hours. Stronger storm = more west?





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[skyline385]

Euro hits Tampa and bounces off lol


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[MJGarrison]

18Z Euro Run


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[NDG]

A good 30-40 mile shift to the west by the 18z Euro, perhaps a start to a consensus between the GFS and Euro now.