ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2521 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:22 pm

Nimbus wrote:Recon found the position maybe half a degree east of the 18Z GFS 6 hour forecast position but GFS was forecasting 1000 mb and recon found 989. See what that does in the next model run.
Edit to add:

Does anyone have the “Beta and Advection Models” BAMD BAMM BAMS?
Deeper storm may track differently south of Cuba?


Those were replaced by TAB(S,M and D) guidance several years ago. TAB stands for Trajectory And Beta.
1 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2522 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:23 pm

tolakram wrote:Trend, which will be very similar to the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/umYtu18.gif

I remember wxman57 mentioned recently that HWRF is based on GFS? That would explain the trend.
3 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5302
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2523 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:25 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Recon found the position maybe half a degree east of the 18Z GFS 6 hour forecast position but GFS was forecasting 1000 mb and recon found 989. See what that does in the next model run.
Edit to add:

Does anyone have the “Beta and Advection Models” BAMD BAMM BAMS?
Deeper storm may track differently south of Cuba?


Those were replaced by TAB(S,M and D) guidance several years ago. TAB stands for Trajectory And Beta.


Thanks, I found them and for this run all three track north near the isle of youth.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2524 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:28 pm

Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2525 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:34 pm

HWRF has trended 2 degrees or @120 miles E over past 2 runs.
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

utweather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:51 pm
Location: SE Austin, TX

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2526 Postby utweather » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:37 pm

Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel is live at Clearwater Beach, Florida. There is your most reliable model.
17 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2527 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:40 pm

2 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2528 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2529 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:43 pm

HWRF stepping in and taking over GFS’ spot for outlier I see…
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5302
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2530 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:HWRF has trended 2 degrees or @120 miles E over past 2 runs.


That was expected for both the GFS and HWRF but why is the HWRF starting to weave back NNW again at 93 hours rather than follow the NHC official track?
1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2531 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:49 pm

The 18z HWRF is actually under-initializing Ian, showing a 999 mbar storm with no eyewall at this time and not getting close to its current pressure and structure until 09z tomorrow morning. This run still gets a 950s major by the time it hits Cuba.
4 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2532 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:50 pm

Quick reminder, gang. We won't have time to be moving any posts from here that should be posted in the discussion thread.

If you see one or more of your posts disappear from here, it's been deemed OT for the model thread, so just repost it over there. Thanks.
15 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2533 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:51 pm

Barely moving north and weakening.
Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

MJGarrison
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

ATL: IAN - Models

#2534 Postby MJGarrison » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm

18Z Euro is a little faster and 4 mb stronger through 30 hours.
Further west but quite a bit stronger, by 16 mb at 72 hours


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Last edited by MJGarrison on Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

MJGarrison
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2535 Postby MJGarrison » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:02 pm

Image
Initialized MSLP at 1003 MB


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2536 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:14 pm

18z Euro stronger, a more left track so far, looks like will go north of Tampa Bay.
1 likes   

MJGarrison
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2537 Postby MJGarrison » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:17 pm

18Z Euro stays off shore during its 90 hour run. This is at 81 hours. Stronger storm = more west?


Image


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2538 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:18 pm

Euro hits Tampa and bounces off lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
3 likes   

MJGarrison
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2539 Postby MJGarrison » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:20 pm

18Z Euro RunImage


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2540 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:23 pm

A good 30-40 mile shift to the west by the 18z Euro, perhaps a start to a consensus between the GFS and Euro now.

Image
3 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest