ATL: IAN - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC is pretty much 100% identical to the 12z CMC through landfall.

[Bocadude85]

Either the GFS is crazy or it will come out triumphant, It’s the only model that hasn’t shown a west central Florida landfall in many cycles.0z CMC has a similar landfall location as the GFS.

[CrazyC83]

That would be a serious hit for Tallahassee if the GFS verified. Still a solid hurricane, maybe a cat 2, at landfall.

[ronjon]

Yeah no consensus on track between GFS and Euro still at 72-96 hrs...

[MrJames]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1574250901900075008

[N2FSU]

That would be a serious hit for Tallahassee if the GFS verified. Still a solid hurricane, maybe a cat 2, at landfall.

Yeh with our dense tree coverage here it would be devastating. I hope this and the 18z Euro slight west shift doesn’t portend of things to come.

[BobHarlem]

0z UKMET shifts right from Laurel (North of Venice) to Englewood.

[CrazyC83]

0z UKMET shifts right from Laurel (North of Venice) to Englewood.

UKMET seems to be the eastern envelope. Most likely it will be somewhere in those. But the impacts go well beyond...

[Beef Stew]

0z UK shifts east, and the GFS is back to its western Panhandle vacation… good to see our consensus is still clear as mud. I must admit I’m a little surprised… at this point we’re (likely) in the 72-96hr range until landfall and we’re still seeing some awfully large discrepancies between model runs. I feel this is the largest spread for this timeframe that we’ve seen in a long while, but perhaps it’s just selective memory. Least to say, I do not envy the position the NHC forecasters are being put into with Ian…

[crimi481]

I am in N. Englewood- on Lemon bay. Looks like many Models bring Ian near Sarasota County - and Charlotte county region. Travels with Charlie?

[IcyTundra]

0z UK shifts east, and the GFS is back to its western Panhandle vacation… good to see our consensus is still clear as mud. I must admit I’m a little surprised… at this point we’re (likely) in the 72-96hr range until landfall and we’re still seeing some awfully large discrepancies between model runs. I feel this is the largest spread for this timeframe that we’ve seen in a long while, but perhaps it’s just selective memory. Least to say, I do not envy the position the NHC forecasters are being put into with Ian…

Last time I can remember something like this was with Laura in 2020. Most other models were showing a SW LA landfall but the Euro wouldn't budge on its Galveston landfall.

[AdamFirst]

Anyone have a map plot of the UKMET run?

[Hayabusa]

Anyone have a map plot of the UKMET run?

[Beef Stew]

0z UK shifts east, and the GFS is back to its western Panhandle vacation… good to see our consensus is still clear as mud. I must admit I’m a little surprised… at this point we’re (likely) in the 72-96hr range until landfall and we’re still seeing some awfully large discrepancies between model runs. I feel this is the largest spread for this timeframe that we’ve seen in a long while, but perhaps it’s just selective memory. Least to say, I do not envy the position the NHC forecasters are being put into with Ian…

Last time I can remember something like this was with Laura in 2020. Most other models were showing a SW LA landfall but the Euro wouldn't budge on its Galveston landfall.

Yeah, the euro was an unmitigated mess for Laura, I remember it was still insistent on that Texas solution within 48 hours before finally caving. I’m starting to get the sense that the GFS might be dying on a similar hill with this insistence on a NW track, but who knows at this point. We’ll see how these runs have aged at the end of the week.

[Bocadude85]

Interesting initialization on the 0z HWRF… is it just a TT glitch or?

[Ed_2001]

To thicken the plot further 0z GEFS has really constrited from previous runs, less far west tracks and less Tampa-area impact, essentially insisting on a high chance of Panhandle landfall.

18z

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF crossing Cuba a little further east

[eastcoastFL]

48H

[Fancy1001]

Why does it feel like every model is digging its heels in saying I don’t care what the others say, we’re gonna do this my way.

[CrazyC83]

This is an emergency manager's worst nightmare that may be unfolding.