ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
NDG wrote:kevin wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:Really bad HMON run.
Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...
https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png
HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.
Short term yes. So this is a bit scary IMO.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Kohlecane wrote:NDG wrote:
HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.
Short term yes. So this is a bit scary IMO.
Yeah that run was basically a “what if Charley succeeded in its initial projected track.” The main difference is likely that Ian will likely be much larger than Charley, which would increase the scope of possible destruction.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I know its the NAM, but the 06z takes a sharp right hook into Port Charlotte area.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Euro will be a decent amount west of 0z, will spare Tampa the worst wind impacts this run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I could be wrong, but I think the stronger it gets before the Cuba crossover, the greater the likelihood that it ends up West and not East
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Could it be, finally, the Euro is W of the GFS??? 

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
We are still a long way out. Things will change. But as EURO and GFS come into close alignment, we can see those that said "the solutions will meet in the middle" are very much, so far, correct. The more northerly motion instead of the curve East around the ridge is what the GFS insisted. Interesting. But if course, we will see what actually happens. Being in Orlando I hate these forecasts. When we are less than 24 hours out, I'm guessing we still won't know if the eyewall is coming ashore.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
WOW that is a huge shift W by the Euro!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
the 6z and 18z euro runs have been a bit wacky, let's see what the 0z looks like
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The Euro is W of the GFS at @72 hours for the first time. I would think this gives a clearer picture for the NHC with the models and there bias and now we watch the GFS to see if it sees a deeper trough and continues it's E trend.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Final Frame of 06Z run vs 96hrs @ 00Z Run
Was NOT expecting that, at all. What the caused this big shift?

Was NOT expecting that, at all. What the caused this big shift?

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