ATL: IAN - Models

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Fancy1001
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2681 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:51 am

Let’s go euro, show me what you got.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2682 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:52 am

NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Really bad HMON run.


Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png


HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.

Short term yes. So this is a bit scary IMO.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2683 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:54 am

Same position at 24hr, but much stronger.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2684 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:55 am

Kohlecane wrote:
NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:
Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png


HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.

Short term yes. So this is a bit scary IMO.


Yeah that run was basically a “what if Charley succeeded in its initial projected track.” The main difference is likely that Ian will likely be much larger than Charley, which would increase the scope of possible destruction.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2685 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:56 am

I know its the NAM, but the 06z takes a sharp right hook into Port Charlotte area.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2686 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:58 am

:double:

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2687 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:59 am

06Z EURO smidge left (10 miles or less?) @ 36hrs but stronger

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2688 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:00 am

Euro will be a decent amount west of 0z, will spare Tampa the worst wind impacts this run.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2689 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:01 am

Still getting stronger.... still W of previous Run, slightly

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2690 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:02 am

I could be wrong, but I think the stronger it gets before the Cuba crossover, the greater the likelihood that it ends up West and not East
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2691 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:03 am

Only a slight E component


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2692 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:05 am

Could it be, finally, the Euro is W of the GFS??? :D
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2693 Postby drewschmaltz » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:06 am

We are still a long way out. Things will change. But as EURO and GFS come into close alignment, we can see those that said "the solutions will meet in the middle" are very much, so far, correct. The more northerly motion instead of the curve East around the ridge is what the GFS insisted. Interesting. But if course, we will see what actually happens. Being in Orlando I hate these forecasts. When we are less than 24 hours out, I'm guessing we still won't know if the eyewall is coming ashore.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2694 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:08 am

Very Significant W Shift


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2695 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:09 am

WOW that is a huge shift W by the Euro!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2696 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:09 am

the 6z and 18z euro runs have been a bit wacky, let's see what the 0z looks like
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2697 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:10 am

chris_fit wrote:Very Significant W Shift


https://i.imgur.com/0NfiUAS.gif


The Euro is W of the GFS at @72 hours for the first time. I would think this gives a clearer picture for the NHC with the models and there bias and now we watch the GFS to see if it sees a deeper trough and continues it's E trend.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2698 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:14 am

JMA says Tampa

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2699 Postby mantis83 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:14 am

euro finally caving to the gfs.....
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2700 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:18 am

Final Frame of 06Z run vs 96hrs @ 00Z Run

Was NOT expecting that, at all. What the caused this big shift?

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