ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

EWRC is taking place. Large outer eyewall has fully formed and the inner eyewall is becoming ill defined.

[Iceresistance]

OMG Weathnerds is overloaded

Yeah, it's been happening with me for the past couple of hours.

[jlauderdal]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

The southerly track is going to be really favorable compared to tampa and north.

Does NHC just follow TVCN or do they show if they anticipate more E movement??

They follow tvcn very closely, its their bible for a good reason.

[CronkPSU]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

Wow, thought disney might try for friday especially with all the kids off school.

sorry i guess that was not what i meant...they are all planning on opening on Friday...

[cheezyWXguy]

Outer eyewall is nearly fully formed on radar, but it’s over 60 miles wide. Gonna be a while before it becomes dominant, and how long it takes will depend on how fast it contracts. Those newer deep bursts look to be in that outer eyewall, so they may help it contract a bit faster

[zeehag]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

But is Waffle House still open?

Nope

O M G that is serious..

[Wakeknight]

Where can I find the eye diameter?

[SFLcane]

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/TMainolfiWESH/status/1574865845813116929

[GCANE]

The cirrus outflow from the tower is covering the eye making it look ragged

[NDG]

Just thinking back a couple of days ago people were saying that this was going to be another Ivan in that the track kept moving west but this looks like it may end up close to another Charley, making landfall further south, another MH which Tampa Bay misses a direct hit.

[cheezyWXguy]

Where can I find the eye diameter?

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1835.html

Areas affected...Southern FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 272027Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be issued for South FL and the FL
Keys by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...The supercell tornado risk will continue across
southern FL and the Keys on the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian,
and gradually spread northward through this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Therefore, a new Tornado Watch will be issued by
21Z.

[NDG]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

Disagree, it points more towards Ft Myers if not Port Charlotte, not Naples.

[edu2703]

From 5PM Forecast Discussion

The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.

[aspen]

I’m surprised they stuck with the 2pm intensity for the 5pm advisory. Even with the EWRC, Ian has likely deepened another few mbar since recon left.

[jdray]

But is Waffle House still open?

Nope

O M G that is serious..

We have one right by my house, I'm keeping an eye on it.

For those on here that don't know about the Waffle House Index, it's a real measurement by FEMA unofficially.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/09/07/how-fema-uses-waffle-houses-disasters/641145001/

[Iceresistance]

Incoming!

NOAA3 Mission #25 into IAN
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

[caneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

What are those arrows pointing too? That isnt the forecast track

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I’m surprised they stuck with the 2pm intensity for the 5pm advisory. Even with the EWRC, Ian has likely deepened another few mbar since recon left.

There's another recon not far away, no point in upping the intensity if we'll know for soon shortly.