ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

[Hammy]

Any chance the ERC prevents further intensification?

[CrazyC83]

It seems that dry air is more of an issue looking at that dropsonde, but it is not preventing deepening. I'd think it would be explosively deepening if not for the dry air entrainment, and that is just holding it somewhat in check.

[Iceresistance]

Noticed that the Outer Southern Eyewall is stronger than the Southern Inner Eyewall in the FL Winds.

[tronbunny]

OMG Weathnerds is overloaded

And that is why I love this place.

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/WXRules/status/1574876273800663040

Actually not bad tornado chase territory there, pretty flat with good visibility/some but not too many trees. Gotta watch out for gators, though!

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/gkyBbnj4/A3-B551-F1-0033-4-ACA-8-BEC-E44-CE60-E6441.jpg

Looks like the ERC (if there was one) has gone seamlessly.

Still plenty of debris from the inner eyewall, and that gap in the southern eyewall could be enough for dry air to get in and cripple Ian. The longer this takes to recover, the greater chance shear can knock this down a few pegs before landfall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Inner eyewall appears to have caught on to outer eyeball's shenanigans. It now has latched on to the outer eyewall and is restrengthening.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1574888140212695040

[Iceresistance]

The inner eyewall refuses to die away!


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/51814618.gif

[GCANE]

NWS Alert> Potential Tornado 8 Miles S of Hendry Correctional or 15 Miles SE of Ave Maria Moving NW At 30 MPH. Locations Impacted Include Ave Maria, Hendry Correctional & Sunniland.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Looks like the movement has become more north instead of NE. Not sure if still east of the forecast track.

[Nuno]

https://twitter.com/WXRules/status/1574876273800663040

Actually not bad tornado chase territory there, pretty flat with good visibility/some but not too many trees. Gotta watch out for gators, though!

Only downside is that it's only got two directions, not a lot of cross streets or highways. Good in a situation like today where tornados were moving S to NW, but would be really risky if they were moving parallel to the highway.

[wx98]

I think the AF plane took off and immediately returned to base.

[GCANE]

The EWRC seems to be still underway indicated by the 84% RH on latest drop.
Infeed is being pinched off by the outer eyewall

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1574888140212695040?s=20&t=rPdXRCgUjIyHxhGs09ECgg

Impressive that the outer eyewall is already stronger in the se quad and about the same in the nw. Looks on radar like the outer eye is only about 40 miles wide now too

[ScottNAtlanta]

FYI...the last two "I" storms on this list Ivan and Igor were both retired...I'd say we now have a third.

[KirbyDude25]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1574888140212695040?s=20&t=rPdXRCgUjIyHxhGs09ECgg

Impressive that the outer eyewall is already stronger in the se quad and about the same in the nw. Looks on radar like the outer eye is only about 40 miles wide now too

Considering a few hours ago we were doubting if this even was an ERC, it looks to be doing it pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if it was done by midnight

[floridasun]

do think ts warring may be upgaade to hurrrwarring in se fl? look like strong band will get closer to dade and se coast?????

[CronkPSU]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1574888140212695040?s=20&t=rPdXRCgUjIyHxhGs09ECgg

Impressive that the outer eyewall is already stronger in the se quad and about the same in the nw. Looks on radar like the outer eye is only about 40 miles wide now too

Considering a few hours ago we were doubting if this even was an ERC, it looks to be doing it pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if it was done by midnight

that would give it waaaaayyyy too much time under hot water and low shear to get bigger and maybe even stronger before landfall