ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

re: the surge issue. I dont see why the surge prediction would have varied that much from a high end cat 3 to a cat 4/5. I am never one to dunk on NHC, they do they best they can and they gave the best information they could...but There will no doubt be stories or folks in cape coral and fort meyers who stayed and needed to go into attics. My friend that survived katrina surge only got out because they had a ladder handy. Her husband had to carry granny (who used a walker) up the ladder and plunk her through the ceiling hole. Hopefully people knew the risks and got out...sounds like most did.

[tolakram]

Saved loop (Sanibel Island Webcams)

Putting webcam links in this thread: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123066

[cheezyWXguy]

[Blown Away]

From satellite looks like very slow ENE drift just offshore.

[Tireman4]

Note that the NHC's 12-16 ft surge into Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers is for the BEACH. Surge up the Caloosahatchee river into Ft. Myers could be 20-24 ft. Similar for Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. See the NHC's inundation graphic for the region. MANY areas under 9+ ft of water this afternoon. Far as I can tell, this will be the worst hurricane ever to strike the area. Charley in 2004 was strong, but tiny compared to Ian. Ian will be retired.

Josh Morgerman should get rare video of a daytime landfall. Any link to him or Mark Sudduth coverage?

I think both are in the Ian: Local Reports and Webcam thread. I know Mark's is

[Rail Dawg]

Fists of God:

When in the inner eyewall of a 140mph+ hurricane I have twice discovered a phenomenon I have named the Fists of God.

The wind will be pushing say 150mph steady. You hear what sounds like an F-18 flying right over your head maybe 1000 feet above you.

Count to ten and a massive fist of water and wind maybe 200 feet wide comes out of the sky punching down at an angle to the ground. These are the real gusts of the hurricane. Whatever this Fist hits unless reinforced almost appears to explode during its destruction.

The most powerful Fists of God in the very inner eyewall are incredibly destructive. You will watch a 300-year-old oak tree uprooted like a matchstick. But the huge oak right next to it is unscathed because the Fist was so concentrated.

I don’t want to bore folks with repeating some things but some things need to be repeated.

Observing the Fists of God from a concrete-reinforced parking structure is far different than observing them from a wood house with no protection. It is unbelievable to me that once again people are going to “ride this out”. The inner eyewall of Ian is going to be incredibly loud and destructive. The Fists of God will be raining down.

Chuck

[SohCahToa]

You can easily infer that the storm has continued strengthening over the last three hours and has likely crossed the threshold.

I’m no scientist, forecaster, or have any education on the weather outside of where my hurricane enthusiasm has led online and on these boards. It seems to me that we see A LOT of estimations made by the NHC in all kinds of situations, so it seems crazy to me that with some of the recon data we had a few hours ago they wouldn’t upgrade based on estimations. I understand wanting things to be confirmed, but it just seems like they are the most strict on that when determining whether to upgrade to Cat 5 only.

The NHC doesn’t operationally upgrade to Cat 5 often in these situations likely to avoid further panic. As soon as it’s an official Cat 5, the media will go bonkers more than before and people may try to panic leave at a time when it’s not safe to do so. The record can be updated later but the NHC is more in the business of saving lives rather than making sure the record is straight operationally. 155 mph is just as bad as 160 anyway so no need to upgrade unless absolutely necessary and undisputed.

Appreciate the reply. That actually makes a lot of sense.

[hurricaneCW]

Eye continues to warm.

If there's a silver lining, the CDO also warmed somewhat in recent frames.

Probably not any indication of weakening though, and even if it is, way too late at this point.

Clouds warm during the day and as we approach Dmin. I don't see much weakening prior to landfall unfortunately

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye continues to warm.

If there's a silver lining, the CDO also warmed somewhat in recent frames.

Probably not any indication of weakening though, and even if it is, way too late at this point.

That is the sun warming the top of the cloud tops.

[AmandaInDestin]

re: the surge issue. I dont see why the surge prediction would have varied that much from a high end cat 3 to a cat 4/5. I am never one to dunk on NHC, they do they best they can and they gave the best information they could...but There will no doubt be stories or folks in cape coral and fort meyers who stayed and needed to go into attics. My friend that survived katrina surge only got out because they had a ladder handy. Her husband had to carry granny (who used a walker) up the ladder and plunk her through the ceiling hole. Hopefully people knew the risks and got out...sounds like most did.

God… I hope they got out. Why would anyone stay for such a thing? I can’t stomach the thought of it. Just watching videos of the destruction from the outer bands from last night are bad. I can’t imagine what is to come.

[Coolcruiseman]

Currently sustained NNE winds of 26 mph with rain bands right off shore here in the Melbourne area.

[kevin]

Perhaps the best Ian has looked on visible so far this morning:

[Michele B]

Watching progression from our “safe place” with no access to a live cast. Does somebody have a link to a good live radar (not delayed too long)?

Also, what is forward speed and direction now? TIA.

[Abdullah]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/kJ07yKH/FFD29-A2-D-AD65-461-A-8075-130-E92-B9-D6-D6.png [/url]

How do you access the wind speed radar?

[TallyTracker]

I see why the ADT numbers are dropping. The overall thickness of the CDO is shrinking. May be the beginning of more shear and dry air having an impact. Don’t expect significant weakening though.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/kJ07yKH/FFD29-A2-D-AD65-461-A-8075-130-E92-B9-D6-D6.png [/url]

How do you access the wind speed radar?

Velocity in Radarscope

[ElectricStorm]

Watching progression from our “safe place” with no access to a live cast. Does somebody have a link to a good live radar (not delayed too long)?

Also, what is forward speed and direction now? TIA.

As of the most recent update, NHC has it at NNE at 10mph

10:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 26.2°N 82.7°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

They're updating it every hour

[ThunderForce]

On radar it looks more like Ian is moving east of due north than NNE to me. Eastern movement seems to be a bit slower than the northward movement.

[Michele B]

Watching progression from our “safe place” with no access to a live cast. Does somebody have a link to a good live radar (not delayed too long)?

Also, what is forward speed and direction now? TIA.

As of the most recent update, NHC has it at NNE at 10mph

10:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 26.2°N 82.7°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

They're updating it every hour

Thank you.

[jdjaguar]

Perhaps the best Ian has looked on visible so far this morning:

https://i.imgur.com/Nis4fBs.jpg

is that a pinhole eye?