ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ed_2001]

How often does a system like this go through an eyewall replacement cycle?

Eyewall replacement is an extremely common process in higher intensity TC’s. In fact I’d say most strong TC’s go through, or at least attempt an ewrc cycle at some point in their life

[Hypercane_Kyle]

How often does a system like this go through an eyewall replacement cycle?

It completed a major eye-wall replacement cycle yesterday. The timing, unfortunately, resulted in the storm peaking right before FL landfall.

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

[Cyclenall]

Just looked at 200mb vort at CIMSS.
Ian is pushing back the PV streamers to its west, making room for longer term intensification.

This was from a few nights ago, but I was wondering what causes those PV streamers out there in the GOM like that? Great to see you back GCANE!

Currently, its an unexpected turn of events but I wouldn't bet on a CAT5 landfall just due to the incredible rarity of US CAT5 LFs and the slow movement of Ian (and heading). Even if its one now. I give it 15% chance. 130-135 knot LF exponentially higher odds. I agree with those that think this is going to be the worst hurricane the west coast of FL has ever seen, this is history.

[Texas Snowman]

https://i.imgur.com/qf61K8E.png

This landfall may be at Captiva Island?

[Blown Away]

Slight wobble E, eyewall at edge of Sanibel…

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Do we have any more recon missions planned or is that going to be it until landfall?

[zzzh]

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.

Could be a Category 5 in post season analysis

[Extratropical94]

Do we have any more recon missions planned or is that going to be it until landfall?

Next mission leaves in an hour. Maybe we get one more center pass before landfall.

[tolakram]

Blurry but highest water that is still working. Ft Meyers cam went down.

[underthwx]

How far from the center are Tropical Storm strength winds, and Hurricane force winds being experienced?

[cheezyWXguy]

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.

Could be a Category 5 in post season analysis

I think it will be. Radar velocities are more extreme than Laura and Ida had, maybe more than what I saw in Michael

[jdjaguar]

Perhaps the best Ian has looked on visible so far this morning:

https://i.imgur.com/Nis4fBs.jpg

is that a pinhole eye?

NO! Eye is 30nm across.

Good, thanks. Visually it appeared to be, my mistake for not looking at the data before posting.
Storm is bad enough.

[PTPatrick]

another thing re surge...if this wobbles even a tad more east I could see charlotte harbor missing some of the highest surge numbers. I think fort meyers gets the brunt regardless, but a few miles difference on the eastern eyewall could make a world of difference for how much gets driven into charlotte harbor. direct middle path of the eye often misses the worst surge...but we are talking miles and its heavily dependent on coastal geometry and storms angle of approach and structure.

[Fancy1001]

Please let them upgrade it before.

[Maryellen46]

https://twitter.com/zachcoveytv/status/1575132828626477056?s=46&t=kVDn9KzAJmEJVamcfmdYYQ

Morons doing it for their stupid Tik Toks.

[ObsessedMiami]

How far from the center are Tropical Storm strength winds, and Hurricane force winds being experienced?

Clearly getting TS gusts in West Miami Dade if that tells you anything

[ElectricStorm]

Please let them upgrade it before.

It literally means nothing if it's upgraded or not right now